DCW Weekly Roundup Second Edition

This round-up reviews the top stories from each section of the DCW Daily Brief over the past week and closes with a primer for the week ahead.

📌  HEADLINES OF THE WEEK

•     AI spending sell-off: Alphabet fell nearly 13% on Thursday, and on Friday the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.9% in its worst session since June, ending the week 2.0% lower and October 5.2% lower.

•     Central banks hold, bias hawkish: the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on a 10 to 2 vote with both dissenters wanting a hike, and futures price roughly an 85% chance of a December increase. The ECB held at 2.50% and Christine Lagarde will leave early.

•     Energy feeds inflation: Brent rose about 12% in October to a six-month high, euro area inflation reached 3.8% and US core PCE ran at 3.1%.

•     Binance theft: a suspected hot-wallet drain of up to $6.3 billion, the largest on record if confirmed, pushed bitcoin below its mid-October range and the Fear and Greed Index from 51 to 30.

📊  MARKET SNAPSHOT

📈  MARKETS

The worst day for US equities since June

On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.8% to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% to 25,437.00 and the Dow fell 1.1% to 51,770.31. Over the week the Nasdaq lost 2.0%, the S&P 500 lost 0.6% and the Dow lost 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.3%. October was the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025.

Intel guided fourth-quarter sales below forecasts and its shares fell roughly a quarter or more in premarket trading, and Amazon reported heavy capital expenditure that weighed on cash flow. Chipmakers led losses in Asia and Europe, the Nikkei fell 2.1% to 63,290 and the STOXX 600 slipped on weakness in ASML and other semiconductor names. Chevron and Exxon both beat profit forecasts.

🏦  GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY AND MACROECONOMICS

A hawkish hold at the Federal Reserve

The FOMC left the target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28th October by 10 votes to 2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring a 25bps hike. The statement upgraded activity from "solid" to "strong". In his first press conference as Chair, Kevin Warsh called the debate "a heck of a family fight" and said he was "unwilling and unable" to call financial conditions tight. Futures now price roughly an 85% chance of a hike on 9th December, and the 10-year yield closed the week at 4.93%.

ECB holds as Lagarde announces early exit

The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.50% on 29th October with inflation at 3.8% against a 2% target, warning that energy prices continue to rise and financing conditions have tightened. Christine Lagarde will step down on 7th February 2027, about nine months early, with Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Klaas Knot seen as frontrunners. French 10-year yields rose above 5%, a spread of about 155 basis points over bunds, and the ECB reiterated that its Transmission Protection Instrument is available. The Bank of Japan held at 1.25%.

UK Budget leaves thin headroom

The Autumn Budget on 28th October left fiscal headroom of about £15 billion, and the OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.6%. Measures include a temporary rise in the bank surcharge from 3% to 6% for 15 months, a £100 energy payment, a two percentage point rise in tax on property and savings income from April 2027, and pensions entering the inheritance tax estate from April 2027. Gilts rallied and bank shares rose about 4%.

In the US, third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate, initial jobless claims were 194,000 and September core PCE was 3.1%.

₿  DIGITAL ASSETS

Binance hot-wallet theft shakes the market

Late on Thursday 29th October attackers drained Binance hot wallets and the exchange paused withdrawals. Binance has cited an impact of about $6.3 billion in assets, other estimates range from about $2 billion to $5.8 billion, and Changpeng Zhao suggested the net loss after freezes could be slightly above $1 billion. On-chain analysis points to an outside attacker using the EIP-7702 account feature to move about 167,000 ETH, roughly 1.6 billion USDT and 62 other tokens in one transaction. Binance's preliminary view is a compromised engineer's laptop with no evidence of private key leakage, and it has pledged to cover losses from its SAFU fund, which holds about 15,000 BTC. TRM Labs attributed the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, which Binance has not confirmed. Withdrawals were reported to be due to resume early on Sunday 1st November.

Bitcoin closed Thursday at $77,992, its first daily close below the $79,800 range floor since mid-October, and traded around $77,100 on Friday after an overnight low near $76,500. About $1.5 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated, roughly 84% of them longs, and UNI, ENA, AAVE, PEPE, LINK and ONDO fell roughly 9% to 15%. Before the shock, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $440.8 million between 26th and 29th October, led by $410.6 million into BlackRock's IBIT, though Thursday's inflow slowed to $17.2 million and Ether funds lost $105.5 million.

🏢  INSTITUTIONAL AND CORPORATE

Strategy pauses buying ahead of the MSCI decision

In its filing of 26th October covering 19th to 25th October, Strategy bought no bitcoin, ending a five-week buying streak, and left holdings at 848,517 BTC at an average cost of $75,446. It spent about $204.9 million repurchasing roughly 2.07 million STRC preferred shares and held a USD reserve of $4.83 billion. MSTR closed Thursday at $141.62, ahead of MSCI's final list on 11th November.

Coinbase, Galaxy and ICE

Coinbase reported third-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion, down 35% year on year, and net income of $719 million including $715 million of unrealised crypto gains; adjusted net income was $78 million. Average USDC held on the platform reached a record $22 billion. Galaxy Digital applied to the OCC for a national trust bank charter, and Intercontinental Exchange announced a partnership with trade[XYZ] to build a regulated US venue for Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures, subject to CFTC approval. Ripple announced final OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank.

⚖️  REGULATORY AND POLICY

US regulators move while Congress is in recess

Both chambers are away ahead of the 3rd November midterms, so market structure legislation has not moved and any attempt would come in a lame-duck session. The CFTC under Chairman Mike Selig opened a consultation on voluntary federal registration for crypto exchanges, with comments due 14th December. The OCC encouraged community banks to consider becoming permitted payment stablecoin issuers, the SEC's fiscal 2027 examination priorities name securities tokenisation, and the SEC charged BG Wealth Sharing and DSJ Exchange over a $130 million crypto signals scheme.

In the UK, HTX settled the FCA's financial promotions case without admitting wrongdoing, with court undertakings running to 21st October 2031. OFAC sanctioned ten individuals and one entity tied to North Korean IT worker fraud on 28th October.

💵  STABLECOINS AND TOKENISATION

Issuers act as the first line of defence

Tether and Circle froze about $2.4 billion linked to the Binance theft within hours, though roughly $700 million of USDT left the attacker's address before the blacklist took effect. Tether's third-quarter results showed net operating profit of $1.5 billion, excess reserves of $7.95 billion and US Treasury bill holdings of $132.4 billion.

The DTCC launched a service to tokenise securities held in DTC custody, with 20 institutions including JPMorgan, Citi and Fidelity signed up. Aviva Investors launched a tokenised share class of its £22 billion Sterling Liquidity Fund on the XRP Ledger with a £50 million investment, and the London Metal Exchange is exploring tokenised metal inventories in Hong Kong warehouses as loan collateral.

🛢️  COMMODITIES

Oil at a six-month high, gold sharply lower

Brent rose about 12% in October to a six-month high, reported at roughly $112 to $116 per barrel on Friday, and front-month WTI closed at $102.95, up 0.9%, on Middle East risk. One market report put spot gold at about $3,885 per ounce, down 3.6% on the day, below last week's support near $4,066; this is a single-source level and should be verified before use.

🤖  TECHNOLOGY, AI AND INNOVATION

Hyperscaler earnings split the market on cash flow

Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $127.58 billion, up 25%, but earnings per share of $2.12 missed on an $8.7 billion loss on equity investments. Capital expenditure rose to $51.3 billion and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion for a second straight quarter, funded by $28.7 billion of senior debt and $12.4 billion of at-the-market stock sales. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.71 billion, yet the shares fell nearly 13%.

Microsoft was rewarded for cash generation: revenue of $92.3 billion, Azure growth of 48% against 44% expected, capital expenditure of $45.2 billion and free cash flow of $18.6 billion. Amazon's third-quarter property and equipment spending was about $77 billion against $35 billion a year earlier, and Meta guided 2026 capital expenditure to $135 billion to $145 billion. The market is now separating AI spenders that fund themselves from those that borrow or issue equity.

On security, Polymarket was compromised through a third-party provider with estimated losses of $2.7 million to $3.5 million, and CoinDCX acknowledged losing 15.99 million USDT through legacy wallet infrastructure.

🗞️  OTHER STORIES

Polymarket launched five-minute crypto price-direction markets on its US platform, and Australia's ASIC said it has received no operating applications from prediction market providers. A proposal by Tachyon Group and Shielded Labs would redirect the Zcash Community Grants block subsidy into a development and legal defence lockbox. South Korea's ruling party is to meet the five main exchanges on delaying crypto taxation.

🔭  PRIMER FOR NEXT WEEK: 2ND TO 6TH NOVEMBER 2026

Next week is an election and Bank of England week: US voters go to the polls on Tuesday 3rd November, the Bank of England decides on Thursday 5th November, and the October US jobs report follows, as markets digest the Binance fallout and a fragile AI trade.

What to watch by section

•     Markets: whether the Nasdaq, close to correction territory after a 5.2% monthly fall, stabilises, and whether the VIX holds below 20.

•     Monetary policy and macro: the Bank of England decision, the US jobs report, the race to succeed Christine Lagarde, and French yields above 5%.

•     Digital assets: whether bitcoin reclaims $79,800 or tests the $76,443 low and the $73,125 200-day average, and whether ETF flows turn negative.

•     Institutional and corporate: Strategy's next filing after a week without purchases, and exchange disclosures on hot wallet controls.

•     Regulatory and policy: post-election signals on legislation and responses to the CFTC consultation.

•     Stablecoins and tokenisation: the reach of issuer freezes, about $3 billion still unfrozen, and bank uptake of OCC stablecoin issuer routes.

•     Commodities: Brent above $110 on Middle East risk, and whether gold stabilises.

•     Technology and AI: financing of data centre build-outs and any further AI-linked earnings.