DCW DAILY BRIEF-Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech & Web3 Market Intelligence

DCW DAILY BRIEF

Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech and Web3 Market Intelligence

Date: Thursday 29th October 2026 | Edition 567 | Updated 11:00 GMT

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James Bowater

linkedin.com/in/james-bowater-b47612 | Twitter/X: X.com@JamesBowater

https://www.dcwi.co.uk/

📖 QUICK READ

Thursday 29th October 2026, Iran War Day 244, opens with the Federal Reserve on hold and Big Tech split down the middle. The Fed kept rates at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent in a 10 to 2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike, and futures now price roughly an 80 to 85 percent chance of a December increase. Wall Street closed on Wednesday with the S&P 500 up 0.28 percent to 7,743.98 and the Nasdaq up 0.27 percent to 26,549.85, but after the bell Microsoft rose about 4 percent on 48 percent Azure growth while Alphabet fell about 10 percent on a profit miss and record cash burn. Samsung reported a record operating profit of 107.4 trillion won yet its shares fell more than 4 percent, the KOSPI slipped about 2.6 percent and Nasdaq futures are down about 1 percent. Brent is about 1 percent lower near $114 on reports that Vice President JD Vance has written to Iran's Mohsen Rezaei, and US third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation are due at 12:30 GMT, with the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT.

Crypto market snapshot in the European morning, with total market capitalisation of approximately $2.77 trillion and the Fear and Greed Index at 50 in Neutral territory: Bitcoin is near $79,800, down about 1.6 percent after failing to hold above $81,000; Ether is near $2,310, down about 2.3 percent; XRP is near $1.29, down about 3 percent; Solana is near $99.70, back below the psychological $100 level; Cardano is near $0.200, down more than 4 percent; and Dogecoin is near $0.0776, down about 3 percent.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $137.3 million on Wednesday, a third straight day of inflows, while Ether ETFs lost about $21 million and Solana ETFs about $24.8 million over two sessions. Shell lifted London with $10.8 billion of adjusted earnings and a $5 billion buyback, Haleon fell about 13 percent, and Israel's count leaves the Netanyahu bloc on 53 seats. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Ripple's Swell conference that stablecoins will be an important source of funding for the Treasury, Circle asked the SEC to treat compliant stablecoins as cash, and Amazon, Coinbase and Intel report after the US close.

🔥 HOT OFF THE PRESS

Fed Holds in a Split 10 to 2 Vote as Warsh Unveils Strategy-Only Meetings, Microsoft Climbs on 48 Percent Azure Growth While Alphabet Sinks About 10 Percent, and Brent Eases on the Vance Letter to Tehran

The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on Wednesday, unchanged since September's quarter point increase, but two of the twelve voters dissented in favour of an immediate hike: Governor Lisa Cook, recording her first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. The statement said inflation "remains elevated" and upgraded its description of the economy to "expanding at a strong pace" from "solid". At his press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said "Politics played no role in the decision," declined to respond to President Trump's criticism, and said the Committee's view was that its moves are "starting to work some, but there's no firm conclusions." He also announced that from 2027 one of the eight annual meetings will be devoted exclusively to monetary policy strategy, with no rate vote or statement, and that he expects the 2028 calendar to include two strategy meetings and six policy meetings. Futures now imply roughly an 80 to 85 percent chance of a quarter point hike at the 9th December meeting, and traders see the policy rate near 4.7 percent by September 2027. The ten year Treasury yield closed at 5.02 percent and is near 5.05 percent this morning, while the two year yield has eased to about 4.69 percent.

The two technology results after the US close pulled in opposite directions. Microsoft reported fiscal first quarter revenue of $92.3 billion, up 19 percent and ahead of the $90.7 billion expected, adjusted earnings of $4.89 per share against $4.73, and Azure growth of 48 percent, disclosing Azure revenue in dollar terms for the first time at $33.17 billion. Capital expenditure including finance leases of $45.2 billion was below the roughly $50.7 billion expected, and guidance for Azure growth of 49 to 50 percent in constant currency next quarter lifted the shares by about 4 percent, with Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood saying "We still have demand that exceeds supply." Alphabet's revenue of $127.6 billion, up 25 percent, was slightly below estimates, and earnings of $2.12 per share fell well short of the $3.02 expected even as Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion. Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion after $51.4 billion of capital spending, and the company raised $28.7 billion of debt in the quarter, sending the shares down about 10 percent after hours and erasing close to $400 billion of market value. Oil eased after the Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President JD Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to explore a revival of talks; President Trump said he had not directed a negotiation and that "Iran needs help with medical supplies."

📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Iran War Day 244 finds markets digesting a hawkish Fed hold and a sharp divergence in Big Tech earnings. The FOMC kept rates at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent with two dissents in favour of a hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh said politics played no role ahead of next Tuesday's midterm elections. On Wall Street on Wednesday the S&P 500 rose 0.28 percent to 7,743.98, its third straight gain, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.27 percent to 26,549.85 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19 percent to 52,475.10, with Vertiv up almost 17 percent and Oracle up about 11 percent after its investor day, while F5 fell more than 20 percent on weak guidance. After the close Microsoft rose about 4 percent and Alphabet fell about 10 percent. In Asia on Thursday the Nikkei 225 was up about 0.3 percent at 64,131, South Korea's KOSPI fell about 2.6 to 2.9 percent to around 5,838 after Wednesday's near 7 percent surge, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8 percent to 3,653.99 and the Hang Seng was little changed near 23,080.

Israel's count, now at more than 90 percent of polling stations, leaves the Netanyahu bloc on 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc on 48 and the Arab parties on 19, with Likud on 26 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar on 21, and more than half a million double-envelope ballots are being counted through Thursday evening. In the Gulf, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at the kingdom's eastern region early on Thursday, and the Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, which Riyadh has not confirmed. Brent settled up 1.3 percent at $115.32 on Wednesday and is about 1 percent lower near $114.10 this morning after reports of the Vance letter, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is in "close and ongoing contact with intermediaries." In London the FTSE 100 is up about 0.4 percent near 10,741, led by Shell, and the European Central Bank is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.5 percent at 13:15 GMT as French bond spreads over Germany sit at their widest in 15 years.

Bitcoin is trading near $79,700 to $80,000 on Thursday, down about 1.6 percent over 24 hours, after Alphabet's after-hours slide and the Fed's hawkish tone pulled it back from Wednesday's high above $81,500, with Bitcoin's dominance at about 57.8 percent. Ether is near $2,300 to $2,310, XRP near $1.29, Solana near $99.70, and total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.77 trillion, according to CoinGecko data. US spot Bitcoin ETFs added $137.3 million on Wednesday, almost all into BlackRock's IBIT, taking total net assets to $104.9 billion, while Ether ETFs recorded about $21 million of outflows. Long liquidations in Bitcoin rose to about $52 million as total derivatives open interest fell about 7.4 percent to $318.6 billion.

Eight dominant narratives define Thursday 29th October: (1) Fed Holds at 3.75 Percent to 4.00 Percent in a 10 to 2 Vote as Cook and Hammack Dissent for a Hike and December Odds Climb to About 80 to 85 Percent; (2) Warsh Announces Strategy-Only FOMC Meetings From 2027 and Says Politics Played No Role; (3) Microsoft Rises About 4 Percent on 48 Percent Azure Growth While Alphabet Falls About 10 Percent on a Profit Miss and Negative Free Cash Flow; (4) Samsung Posts a Record 107.4 Trillion Won Operating Profit but Shares Fall More Than 4 Percent as the KOSPI Retreats; (5) Brent Eases Towards $114 on the Vance Letter to Iran as Trump Plays Down Talks; (6) Israel's Count Leaves Netanyahu's Bloc on 53 Seats With Double-Envelope Ballots Still Being Counted; (7) US GDP and PCE Inflation at 12:30 GMT, the ECB at 13:15 GMT and Amazon, Coinbase and Intel After the Close; (8) Bitcoin Slips Below $80,000 Despite a Third Day of ETF Inflows as Bessent Calls Stablecoins a Source of Treasury Funding.

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Politics played no role in the decision. I didn't hear an utterance about politics."

~ Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Federal Reserve, speaking at his press conference in Washington on Wednesday 28th October, after the FOMC held rates in a split vote six days before the US midterm elections

📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES

💹 MARKETS

Wall Street Posts a Third Straight Gain as Vertiv and Oracle Surge, Alphabet's Slide Drags Nasdaq Futures Lower, and Samsung's Record Profit Fails to Lift the KOSPI

US equities edged higher on Wednesday after a choppy reaction to the Fed, with stocks dipping on the 2pm statement, rallying while Chair Warsh spoke and then giving back much of that move. The S&P 500 rose 0.28 percent to 7,743.98, about 1.3 percent below its October record of 7,844, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.27 percent to 26,549.85 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19 percent to 52,475.10, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 and small caps finished lower. Vertiv jumped almost 17 percent on long-term AI infrastructure demand forecasts and Oracle rose about 11 percent to $144.54 after setting new financial targets at its investor day, while F5 fell more than 20 percent after weak guidance and an analyst downgrade. Energy stocks led sector gains as crude rose. After the bell, Microsoft rose about 4 percent and Alphabet fell about 10 percent, and in the European morning S&P 500 futures were down about 0.45 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures about 1 percent, with the VIX near 16.9. Amazon, Intel and Coinbase report after the US close on Thursday.

Asian equities were mixed on Thursday as Alphabet's results and Samsung's reaction tempered AI optimism. Samsung Electronics reported a record third quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, up 783 percent, on revenue of 195.25 trillion won, but its shares fell more than 4 percent, while SK Hynix rose about 1.3 percent after Wednesday's 11 percent jump. South Korea's KOSPI fell about 2.6 to 2.9 percent to around 5,838, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose about 0.3 percent to 64,131.28 with Kioxia and Advantest higher and Tokyo Electron, SoftBank and TSMC lower, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.8 percent to 3,653.99 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was little changed near 23,080, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan down about 0.7 percent. In Europe, the FTSE 100 rose about 0.4 percent to around 10,741 and the FTSE 250 about 0.3 percent to 24,709, with Shell up about 3 percent after $10.8 billion of adjusted earnings and a $5 billion buyback and BAE Systems up 2.6 percent, while Haleon fell about 13 percent after cutting its organic revenue growth forecast on weak North American demand and Lloyds and St James's Place each fell about 3.5 percent on their results.

📈 MARKET OVERVIEW TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP: APPROXIMATELY $2.77 TRILLION | Thursday 29th October 2026

Total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.77 trillion on Thursday, down about 1.3 percent over 24 hours, with Bitcoin's dominance at approximately 57.8 percent and 24 hour trading volume of approximately $69 billion, according to CoinGecko data at 04:15 UTC. Stablecoin capitalisation is about $295 billion and decentralised finance tokens fell about 3.4 percent to a combined $73.9 billion. Total derivatives open interest dropped about 7.4 percent to $318.6 billion and funding rates fell by about 37 percent, as the Fed's hawkish hold, Alphabet's after-hours slide and a weaker Nasdaq futures market pushed leveraged traders out ahead of the PCE release.

₿ BITCOIN (BTC) approx $79,700-$80,000

Bitcoin traded as high as about $81,600 on Wednesday before reversing after the Fed decision and Alphabet's results, and was near $79,700 to $79,900 in the European morning on Thursday, down about 1.6 percent over 24 hours. Long liquidations reached about $52 million, more than ten times the previous period, as the $79,000 to $80,000 zone was retested. CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin is down about 4.2 percent in October, against an average October gain of 18.1 percent, with spot demand negative since 14th October and trader margins falling from 33 percent to 8 percent. Glassnode estimates the average cost basis of ETF holders at about $81,500 and of active investors at about $77,900, while the short-term holder cost basis is near $76,500, leaving recent buyers with an average profit of only about 5.5 percent.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $137.33 million on Wednesday 28th October, according to SoSoValue, a third consecutive day of inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT taking in $136.01 million and Bitwise's BITB $1.32 million while the other ten funds were flat. Trading volume across the complex was $1.26 billion, total net assets stand at $104.88 billion, about 6.4 percent of Bitcoin's market capitalisation, and cumulative net inflows since launch are $57.61 billion. On chain, MARA Holdings moved 1,000 BTC, worth about $80.7 million, to BitGo, and Bitcoin Core developers disclosed three new vulnerabilities, one of which could allow remote node crashes, fixed in versions 29.5, 30.4, 31.2 and 32.1.

Immediate support lies at $79,000, the bottom of this week's range, then $77,900, the active investor cost basis, and $76,500, the short-term holder cost basis, while resistance sits at $81,500, the ETF holder cost basis, then $82,500 and $85,000, which Glassnode identifies as the level to reclaim.

 ETHEREUM (ETH) approx $2,300-$2,310

Ether fell about 2.3 percent to around $2,308 on Thursday, underperforming Bitcoin, and is down more than 5 percent on the week and more than 10 percent over 30 days. US spot Ether ETFs recorded about $21 million of net outflows on Wednesday, adding to an October that had already seen more than $1 billion leave the products by 21st October, the largest monthly outflow of 2026.

On the protocol side, Ethereum developers merged a fix on Monday 26th October for a Glamsterdam bug, identified by researcher Avsetsin, under which pending deposits could have been credited to a builder rather than a validator using the same key, potentially allowing an operator to capture a staking service's deposit. No losses have been reported, deposits will now be sorted by withdrawal credentials, and the planned Hoodi test network launch has been postponed, so a mainnet date for Glamsterdam cannot yet be scheduled.

Immediate support lies at $2,280 to $2,300, then $2,250 and $2,200, while resistance sits at $2,350, then $2,380 and $2,400, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

🔷 XRP (XRP) approx $1.28-$1.30

XRP fell about 3 percent to $1.29 on Thursday, slipping back from the $1.30 to $1.34 range in which it has traded this week, although whale holdings are reported at four year highs. At Ripple's Swell conference in New York, the company outlined RLUSD settlement on the XRP Ledger for Robinhood, a broader relationship with BNY covering custody and tokenised trade finance, and a Ripple Treasury product for earning yield on idle corporate cash, and said it expects about $900 million of annualised product revenue by the end of 2026. Chief Executive Brad Garlinghouse rejected rumours that Ripple would step back from the token, saying "we will never give up on XRP", and Coinbase now supports RLUSD transfers on Base, Ethereum and the XRP Ledger.

Immediate support lies at $1.25 to $1.28, then $1.20, while resistance sits at $1.32, then $1.34 and $1.37, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

◎ SOLANA (SOL) approx $99-$100

Solana fell about 2 to 2.5 percent to around $99.70 on Thursday, slipping back below $100 after a session range of $99.23 to $103.65, and is down about 15 percent over the past month. US spot Solana ETFs recorded outflows of $19.16 million on 27th October, the largest daily withdrawal since December 2025, and $5.66 million on 28th October, taking October outflows above $105 million, while Lookonchain reported that one wallet sold about 1.02 million SOL over five days, a figure that has not been independently verified. The seven day RSI of about 34.8 points to weak momentum.

Immediate support lies at $96 to $100, then $95, while resistance sits at $104 to $105, the breakout threshold, then $108 and $112, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

₳ CARDANO (ADA) approx $0.198-$0.202

Cardano fell more than 4 percent over 24 hours to around $0.200 on Thursday, one of the weaker large caps as the altcoin season index fell about 5 percent and layer one tokens lost ground with the wider market, according to market data providers. The token is retesting the $0.20 level that has acted as a floor in recent sessions.

The $0.195 mark provides immediate support, with $0.19 and $0.185 beneath it, while resistance sits at $0.206, then $0.21 and $0.22, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

💕 DOGECOIN (DOGE) approx $0.076-$0.078

Dogecoin is trading around $0.0776 on Thursday, down about 3 percent over 24 hours, giving back Wednesday's gains as leveraged positions were cleared across the market, with meme coin sentiment remaining subdued relative to the top tier assets.

The $0.075 to $0.076 range provides immediate support, with $0.073 below it, while resistance sits at $0.080, then $0.082 and $0.085, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

😱 Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Sentiment Holds at a Neutral 50 as Bitcoin Slips Back Below $80,000

CoinGlass's Fear and Greed Index stood at 50 on Thursday, unchanged from Wednesday, with a seven day average of 50 and a 30 day average of 60, according to data cited by ChainCatcher. Sentiment has cooled steadily from readings in the 60s and 70s a month ago, and a hot PCE print that reinforces December hike expectations is the most immediate risk.

🏛 Traditional Markets Context

The ten year US Treasury yield closed above 5 percent at 5.02 percent on Wednesday after the Fed decision and is near 5.05 percent on Thursday, while the two year yield has eased about 6 basis points to around 4.69 percent and the 30 year traded near 5.33 percent. The dollar slipped against the euro during Warsh's press conference, with the euro near $1.1156 and the dollar at about 157.64 yen, and the New Zealand dollar is near $0.5626 after Wednesday's surprise hold by its central bank. Futures imply roughly an 80 to 85 percent probability of a December hike and a policy rate near 4.7 percent by September 2027, and Goldman Sachs economists said the apparent support for hiking every other meeting sets a high bar for deviating from that pattern. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model points to annualised third quarter growth of 3.4 percent, the strongest in a year, ahead of the official GDP estimate and September PCE inflation at 12:30 GMT, with core PCE forecast at 0.3 percent month on month. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 7.33 percent from 7.12 percent a month ago.

Outside the United States, gilts rallied on the Debt Management Office's revised remit, which put gross gilt issuance for 2026/27 at £250.6 billion, £4.4 billion more than in April and slightly above expectations, but with a marked skew away from long-dated supply, before Office for Budget Responsibility commentary pared some of the gains. Sterling is near $1.332 and 83.68 pence per euro, and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 5th November. The ECB announces its decision at 13:15 GMT, with a hold at a 2.5 percent deposit rate expected and a further hike possible in December, while euro area third quarter GDP and October inflation readings follow on Friday. The Bank of Japan concludes its meeting on Friday, where a hawkish hold is expected. Across commodities, Brent is near $114, spot gold has fallen about 1 percent towards $4,010 to $4,020 and silver is down about 2.4 percent to $52.67, with higher yields after the Fed weighing on non-yielding assets.

🏢 INSTITUTIONAL & CORPORATE

Microsoft and Alphabet Deliver Divergent Verdicts on AI Spending, Samsung Becomes the First Company to Earn 100 Trillion Won in a Quarter, and Shell Raises Its Buyback as Oil Holds Above $110

Microsoft's fiscal first quarter showed AI demand converting into revenue faster than capital spending. Revenue rose 19 percent to $92.3 billion and net income to $36.6 billion, Microsoft Cloud revenue rose 30 percent to $63.9 billion, and under a new two segment structure Agents and Infra revenue rose 25 percent to $76.8 billion while Devices and Consumer fell 3 percent to $15.5 billion, with Windows and devices revenue down 22 percent as higher memory and storage costs pushed up PC prices. Chief Executive Satya Nadella said Microsoft 365 Copilot users rose 50 percent from the previous quarter, about 75 percent of capital expenditure now goes on short-lived assets such as GPUs and CPUs, and free cash flow fell 27 percent to $18.6 billion. Guidance for second quarter revenue of $96 billion to $97.1 billion was above the $95.6 billion expected. Alphabet, by contrast, reported operating income of $40.6 billion against $43.2 billion expected and net income of $26.5 billion, down from $35.0 billion a year earlier, and analysts said its AI growth is weighing on the advertising business even as Google Cloud, helped by TPU system sales, grew 103 percent. Its negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion was the worst on record, and it raised $12.4 billion from share sales and $28.7 billion of debt during the quarter.

Samsung Electronics confirmed a record third quarter, with operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, up 783 percent and the first quarterly operating profit above 100 trillion won for any technology company, revenue up about 127 percent to 195.25 trillion won and net profit up about 526 percent to 75.21 trillion won, driven by AI memory demand. The shares still fell more than 4 percent, as slowing memory price increases and a stronger won tempered the result and analysts noted how demanding expectations for the AI trade have become. In London, Shell reported adjusted earnings of $10.8 billion and raised its buyback to $5 billion, lifting its shares about 3 percent, while Haleon fell about 13 percent after cutting its full year organic revenue growth outlook on weak North American demand, Lloyds met forecasts for third quarter pre-tax profit but fell about 3.5 percent as several measures missed, and Glencore said copper output rose 3 percent in the first nine months but 2026 production is likely to be near the low end of its range. Reports that Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum sent Lumentum up about 17 percent and Marvell down about 8 percent after hours, and PIMCO has cut its Meta and Oracle linked AI debt positions by about half.

⚖️ REGULATORY & POLICY

Bessent Calls Stablecoins a Source of Treasury Funding, Circle Asks the SEC to Treat Compliant Stablecoins as Cash, OFAC Targets North Korean IT Worker Networks and Brazil's Licensing Deadline Arrives

In the United States, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Ripple's Swell conference in New York that stablecoins are "going to be an important source of funding for the Treasury," noting that more than 90 percent are dollar pegged and mostly backed by Treasuries, and called the stalled CLARITY Act a disappointment, saying the Treasury will work to bring the SEC and CFTC together and to set industry standards against debanking. Circle has submitted comments on the SEC's proposed crypto framework asking that GENIUS Act compliant payment stablecoins be treated as cash under proposed rule 302(b), that the 2 percent broker-dealer haircut be cut to zero, and that a safe harbour be created for technical roadmaps. The CFTC will hold a public roundtable on 15th December on 24/7 derivatives trading and tokenisation, with Chair Michael Selig saying there will be no one-size-fits-all approach. The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned ten individuals and one entity over North Korean IT worker fraud and related crypto laundering, with Australia and the EU taking similar steps, and prediction market Kalshi now gives Democrats 64 percent odds of winning the Senate and 90 percent the House on 3rd November, which would make passage of the CLARITY Act unlikely and could put Senator Elizabeth Warren in the chair of the Senate Banking Committee.

In Brazil, the central bank's licensing deadline for virtual asset service providers falls on Friday 30th October, under resolutions that require firms letting customers trade, hold or send crypto to be licensed, hold minimum capital and segregate client accounts. Itaú Unibanco has become the first bank to formally offer crypto trading and custody under the new rules, notifying regulators ahead of the deadline, while Binance has applied for authorisation, restricting eight services and delisting 22 tokens for Brazilian users. Roughly 120 crypto firms operate in the country, most of them still unlicensed. In Hong Kong, the Investor and Financial Education Council has flagged the risks of secondary trading in tokenised funds, including price discrepancies, thin liquidity and reliance on market makers.

In the United Kingdom, the FCA's consultation CP26/36 on cryptoasset perimeter guidance, published on 21st October, remains open for responses until 18th November 2026, with final guidance expected in spring 2027 and the new regulated cryptoasset activities entering the perimeter on 25th October 2027. The consultation explains how the new exclusions interact with the regulated activities and makes consequential changes to the financial promotions guidance in PERG 8. Separately, the Budget raised the bank surcharge from 3 percent to 6 percent for 15 months, a smaller increase than some investors had feared, and the revised gilt remit's tilt away from long-dated issuance is the clearest early signal of how the Treasury intends to manage gilt supply ahead of the Bank of England's 5th November decision.

📦 COMMODITIES

🪙 Gold: Trading approx $4,010-$4,060/oz

Spot gold fell about 1 percent on Thursday towards $4,010 to $4,020 an ounce, after being rejected near $4,074, as markets continued to price roughly an 80 percent chance of a December Fed hike ahead of the PCE release at 12:30 GMT. Bybit's chief market analyst Han Tan said gold could drop "below $4,000" if the inflation data comes in hotter than expected and strengthens the case for a hike, with higher rates raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

🛢️ Brent Crude: approx $114/bbl

Brent crude is trading around $114.10 to $114.20 a barrel on Thursday, down about 1 percent, after settling up 1.3 percent at $115.32 on Wednesday, with US crude down about 1.4 percent near $101.40 after settling at $102.78. Prices eased on reports of Vice President Vance's letter to Mohsen Rezaei and on Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's comment that Tehran is reviewing ideas through intermediaries, although President Trump played down the outreach and the Associated Press reported that Washington has told regional allies to prepare for possible renewed action after the midterms. US crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels in the week to 23rd October, the fourth straight draw, while gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels. UBS's Giovanni Staunovo said "Global inventories have fallen sharply, with pledged strategic oil reserves releases largely completed," and OPEC+ meets on Sunday 1st November to set December output targets.

🟠 Copper: approx $6.55/lb ($14,430/t)

LME three month copper is trading at about $14,432.50 a tonne on Thursday, down 0.3 percent, just below Wednesday's two week high of $14,517, and the most traded Shanghai contract is down 0.25 percent at 109,560 yuan a tonne. Tight physical supply in China is providing support, with the Yangshan premium at $205 a tonne, its highest in more than a decade, and Shanghai exchange inventories falling more than 26 percent last week, while expectations of a December Fed hike are limiting gains.

⚪ Silver: approx $52.50-$53.00/oz

Silver is trading at about $52.67 an ounce on Thursday, down about 2.4 percent, underperforming gold as higher Treasury yields after the Fed weigh on precious metals, with near-term support flagged at $52, according to Reuters and market data providers.

🪙 Platinum: Trading approx $1,500-$1,505/oz

Platinum is trading at approximately $1,502.61 an ounce on Thursday, down 2.3 percent, while palladium is at about $1,002.55, down 0.8 percent, according to Reuters, with both metals pressured by the stronger rate outlook.

📝 MARKET NARRATIVE & ANALYSIS

Thursday 29th October 2026 is the day markets decide what Wednesday meant. The Fed did what was expected, holding at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, but the two dissents in favour of a hike, the upgrade to "expanding at a strong pace" and the statement that the Committee "will deliver price stability" leave December looking close to a done deal, with futures pricing roughly an 80 to 85 percent chance of a further increase. Chair Warsh's decision to set aside a strategy-only meeting each year from 2027, and his preference for avoiding forward guidance in normal times, point to a Fed that wants to communicate less and act on data, which makes today's GDP and PCE prints at 12:30 GMT unusually important. A strong growth figure in line with the Atlanta Fed's 3.4 percent estimate and a firm core PCE reading would reinforce the case for tightening, with the ten year yield already back above 5 percent.

The earnings split between Microsoft and Alphabet is the more interesting signal for equities. Both companies are spending heavily on AI, but Microsoft showed Azure accelerating to 48 percent with capital expenditure below forecasts and positive free cash flow, while Alphabet showed record cloud growth alongside negative free cash flow, an earnings miss and $28.7 billion of new debt. Investors are rewarding visible returns on AI investment and punishing cash burn, a distinction that matters for Amazon tonight and for the wider debt-financed AI build-out. Samsung's fall after a record profit makes the same point from the supply side: memory makers are earning extraordinary sums, but the market is now looking for evidence that pricing momentum can be sustained. Geopolitics adds a second layer, with the Vance letter offering a diplomatic channel even as the President plays it down and Gulf allies are told to prepare for possible strikes after 3rd November, so Brent's drift towards $114 reflects a market that is hedging both outcomes rather than pricing peace.

In crypto, Bitcoin's failure to hold above $81,000 is consistent with the on-chain picture of thin profit margins for recent buyers. With the ETF holder cost basis near $81,500 and the short-term holder cost basis near $76,500, the market is trading in a narrow band where both sides have reasons to sell into strength or defend weakness, and the clearing of about $52 million of long positions overnight has reduced leverage without resolving direction. Three straight days of ETF inflows are a modest positive, but CryptoQuant's data show spot demand negative since mid-October, and the midterm outlook, in which Democrats are favoured to take both chambers, has lowered the chances of the CLARITY Act passing this year. The near-term catalysts are PCE this afternoon and Coinbase's results after the close, where trading volumes and stablecoin revenue will show how much activity has held up through a soft October.

💸 STABLECOINS, TOKENISATION & REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS

Stablecoins: Stablecoin settlement continues to scale on card networks, with Visa's annualised stablecoin settlement volume reported above $25 billion, about ten times the level a year ago, across ten blockchains, more than 225 stablecoin-linked card programmes and over $800 million of its Open USD in circulation as of 15th October. Tether has launched the FASE Foundation, a Swiss non-profit whose founders include Kraken, Bybit, Chainalysis, Anchorage Digital and the Solana Foundation, with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime as a strategic partner, to fund anti-fraud education for up to ten million young people and a stablecoin aid pilot reaching up to one million people, while the Circle Foundation is exploring humanitarian stablecoin payments with grants to the UNDP and the World Food Programme. Market capitalisation for the sector is about $295 billion to $300 billion, with USDT at about $181.6 billion and USDC at about $71.0 billion, and RLUSD has reached about $2.6 billion. Not every claim has held up: Alipay said reports from Peer that it supports USDC trades were false and unauthorised, and that it does not offer crypto services, while the Initia Foundation approved a capital injection to restore the peg of the assets backing iUSD after its 23rd October security incident.

Tokenisation: The DTCC's tokenisation service is now reported to be live with 34 securities, each token backed one for one by assets in DTC custody and using the same CUSIP identifiers, with 24/7 peer to peer transfers between DTC-registered wallets and launch partners including BitGo, Blockdaemon, Fireblocks, HashKey, Kaleido, Prometheum, Talos and Tradeweb. Ripple and BNY are extending their relationship into tokenised trade finance using RLUSD, XRP and the XRP Ledger, and Google has opened a private preview of its multi-party computation custody service, with a commercial launch planned for early 2027, key shards split across Google Cloud, institutions' own hardware and other clouds, support for two-of-three and five-of-seven signing thresholds and a planned post-quantum upgrade, putting it in competition with Fireblocks, Fordefi and BitGo. In the Gulf, the UAE's SAC has launched a $1.5 billion strategy combining Bitcoin and real estate, with the Bitcoin held through Coinbase Asset Management.

Regulatory frameworks: The rules for both themes are being shaped this week by comment letters, roundtables and deadlines rather than legislation. In the United States, Circle's request that compliant payment stablecoins be treated as cash and that the 2 percent broker-dealer haircut be removed would, if adopted, lower the cost of holding stablecoins on regulated balance sheets, Secretary Bessent has framed stablecoin demand as a structural buyer of Treasuries, and the CFTC's 15th December roundtable on 24/7 trading and tokenisation will test how derivatives rules adapt to continuous markets. The CLARITY Act, which the Senate declined to take up in a 49 to 50 vote on 15th September, now faces a less favourable Congress if the midterm forecasts hold. Brazil's licensing deadline on 30th October brings its crypto market of roughly 120 firms inside central bank supervision, Hong Kong's education council has highlighted secondary market risks for tokenised funds, and in the United Kingdom the FCA's perimeter guidance consultation closes on 18th November ahead of the regime's start on 25th October 2027.

🤖 TECHNOLOGY, AI & INNOVATION

Investors Reward Microsoft's Returns and Punish Alphabet's Cash Burn, OpenAI Reportedly Turns to Google TPUs, DeepMind Unveils Genie 4 and AI Infrastructure Financing Heads Towards $10 Trillion

Technology: The AI hardware trade broadened on Wednesday, with Vertiv up almost 17 percent on long-term data centre demand forecasts and Oracle up about 11 percent after its investor day, while SK Hynix's US-listed shares rose about 10 percent intraday. Samsung's record result and subsequent share fall, and reports of Marvell's advanced talks to buy optical components maker Lumentum, underline how the semiconductor supply chain is consolidating around AI connectivity and memory. Microsoft said higher memory and storage costs are pushing up PC prices, with its Devices and Consumer revenue down 3 percent, a reminder that the AI memory boom is also a cost for other parts of the technology sector.

AI: OpenAI is reported to be planning purchases of Google's Tensor Processing Units, extending its existing rental arrangement, although neither company has confirmed terms, and Alphabet said TPU system sales were a meaningful contributor to Google Cloud's 103 percent growth. Google DeepMind announced Genie 4, a world model with real-time interaction, native audio and physics simulation, initially for trusted testers. Anthropic expanded its GSA agreement to cover federal, state and local governments with a 40 percent discount on Claude products, estimating $1 billion of savings and about 500 US government organisations already using Claude, and its IPO filing has prompted OKX and Binance to list perpetual contracts tied to its valuation. The Washington Post estimates that companies could seek roughly $10 trillion of financing for chips and data centres through 2032, and AI-related debt financing to date totals about $500 billion, which helps explain why investors punished Alphabet's negative free cash flow and debt raising.

Innovation: Machine-checked mathematics and security took a step forward, with Axiom saying it has computer-verified the Classification of Finite Simple Groups, a proof of about 15,000 pages, in a Lean formalisation of about 43.1 million lines produced with the help of AI agents over 24 days, and Anthropic and Theorem generating machine-checkable security proofs for 123 open source libraries. Apple is bringing an AI assistant to Pages, Keynote and Numbers and adding Model Context Protocol support for third party agents in macOS 27. Security incidents remain a counterweight: Cloudflare disclosed that a configuration mismatch exposed cached data from other customers in 155 responses from its Workers AI service between 27th August and 9th September, and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao warned users not to open email links or attachments even from trusted contacts.

🌍 GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY & MACROECONOMICS

In the United States, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on Wednesday in a 10 to 2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring a quarter point increase. The statement described inflation as elevated and activity as expanding at a strong pace, and the Desk will roll over Treasury principal, reinvest agency principal into Treasury bills and buy bills as needed to maintain ample reserves. Chair Warsh said overall financial conditions are tighter but that he was "unwilling and unable to call them tight," and that "Interest rates get in the cracks" when asked about AI investment. Futures imply about an 80 to 85 percent chance of a hike on 9th December. Third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation are due at 12:30 GMT, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model at 3.4 percent, and Amazon, Coinbase and Intel report after the close. The midterm elections are on 3rd November.

In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.5 percent at 13:15 GMT, with most economists in a Bloomberg survey expecting a further increase in December once new projections are available. Euro area inflation is running at close to double the 2 percent target, driven mainly by energy disruptions linked to the war in Iran, and the spread between French and German ten year yields has widened to its highest in 15 years amid a widening French deficit and political division, raising questions about the Transmission Protection Instrument, which Lombard Odier's Nanette Hechler-Fayd'herbe said is unlikely to be used unless stress spreads across the euro area. In the United Kingdom, the Debt Management Office's revised remit sets gross gilt issuance for 2026/27 at £250.6 billion with a skew away from long maturities, and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 5th November.

In Asia Pacific, the Bank of Japan concludes its two day meeting on Friday, where a hawkish hold is expected with the yen near 157.6 to the dollar, and the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on 3rd November. South Korea's KOSPI is retreating after Wednesday's surge despite Samsung's record profit, and Moody's has warned that high interest rates could expose weaker borrowers who took out loans in 2020 to 2022 to refinancing pressure. The Bank of Canada's first increase in more than three years and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hold this week, which pushed the New Zealand dollar down about 1 percent to $0.5626, show central banks continuing to diverge as oil above $110 keeps headline inflation elevated.

🔴 ELEVATED RISKS: Technology, Geopolitical & Macro

- Technology: AI Cash Burn and Earnings Dispersion. Alphabet's earnings of $2.12 per share against $3.02 expected, operating income of $40.6 billion against $43.2 billion, negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion and $28.7 billion of new debt in a single quarter erased close to $400 billion of market value after hours, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 1 percent. With Amazon reporting tonight and AI-related debt financing at about $500 billion, investors are now separating companies that show returns on AI spending from those that do not, and a disappointment from another hyperscaler could extend the sell-off.

- Technology: Memory Pricing, Consolidation Scrutiny and Security Flaws. Samsung's shares fell more than 4 percent despite a record 107.4 trillion won operating profit, as slowing memory price increases and a stronger won raised questions about how long the memory cycle can run at this pace. Reported consolidation such as Marvell's talks to buy Lumentum may draw antitrust attention, while Bitcoin Core's three newly disclosed vulnerabilities, a zero-click Telegram sticker flaw on iOS disputed by Telegram and Cloudflare's cached data exposure show how quickly technology risk can reach users.

- Geopolitical: Post-Midterm Strike Risk and Saudi Infrastructure. The Associated Press and the Wall Street Journal report that Washington has told Gulf allies to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran after 3rd November, the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at the eastern region on Thursday and the Houthis claim to have struck Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, a 550,000 barrel a day plant, which Riyadh has not confirmed. With Brent near $114 and global inventories sharply lower, a confirmed hit on Saudi capacity could push prices towards $120.

- Geopolitical: Mixed US Signals and Israeli Caretaker Government. President Trump has denied directing Vice President Vance to negotiate and described the letter to Rezaei as concerning medical supplies, while Iran says it is reviewing ideas through intermediaries for its seven day plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In Israel, neither bloc has a majority, the country could remain under a caretaker government during coalition talks, Arab parties have signalled willingness to help remove the Netanyahu government and Trump is reported to oppose the inclusion of Itamar Ben-Gvir, and likely Bezalel Smotrich, in any new coalition.

- Macro: Hawkish Fed, Data Risk and Five Percent Yields. Two dissents in favour of a hike, futures pricing of about 80 to 85 percent for December and a policy rate near 4.7 percent expected by September 2027 leave risk assets exposed to today's PCE and GDP data. The ten year yield is back above 5 percent, mortgage rates have risen to 7.33 percent, and Bybit's Han Tan warns that gold could fall below $4,000 on a hot inflation print, while Bitcoin is already trading below the average cost basis of ETF holders.

- Macro: European Bond Stress and Gilt Supply. The French to German ten year spread at a 15 year high, euro area inflation near twice the ECB's target and the prospect of another ECB hike in December raise the risk of contagion to Italy and other high debt members. In the United Kingdom, gross gilt issuance for 2026/27 has been revised up by £4.4 billion to £250.6 billion, and although the skew away from long-dated supply helped gilts on Wednesday, any slippage in borrowing or a hawkish Bank of England on 5th November could quickly reverse that calm.

🟢 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS: Institutional & Regulatory

- Institutional: Proof That AI Spending Can Pay. Microsoft's 19 percent revenue growth, 48 percent Azure growth, capital expenditure below forecasts, a $677 billion commercial backlog and guidance for 49 to 50 percent Azure growth next quarter give investors a concrete example of AI investment translating into revenue and cash flow, and its shares rose about 4 percent after hours.

- Institutional: Record Profits and Shareholder Returns. Samsung's 107.4 trillion won operating profit, the first quarter above 100 trillion won for any technology company, Shell's $10.8 billion of adjusted earnings and $5 billion buyback, and Vertiv's near 17 percent gain on long-term AI infrastructure forecasts show corporate earnings power holding up across semiconductors, energy and data centre infrastructure despite higher rates.

- Institutional: Steady ETF Demand and Expanding Crypto Infrastructure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in money for three consecutive sessions, with $137.3 million on Wednesday taking total net assets to $104.9 billion, while Ripple's partnerships with Robinhood and BNY, Coinbase's RLUSD support on three networks, Google's MPC custody preview and the DTCC's live tokenisation service show institutional infrastructure continuing to build regardless of short-term price moves.

- Regulatory: Treasury Backing for Dollar Stablecoins. Secretary Bessent's description of stablecoins as an important source of funding for the Treasury, together with his commitment to bring the SEC and CFTC together and to tackle debanking, signals continued executive branch support for a regulated stablecoin market, and Circle's request to treat compliant stablecoins as cash would, if adopted, remove a significant cost for broker-dealers.

- Regulatory: Licensing Regimes Coming Into Force. Brazil's 30th October licensing deadline, with Itaú Unibanco becoming the first bank to formally offer crypto trading and custody under central bank rules and Binance applying for authorisation, brings one of the largest emerging crypto markets inside a supervised framework, while the CFTC's 15th December roundtable on 24/7 trading and tokenisation shows US regulators engaging with continuous markets.

- Regulatory: Clearer UK Timelines and Calmer Gilts. The FCA's perimeter guidance consultation gives firms a defined path to final guidance in spring 2027 and the regime's start on 25th October 2027, while the Debt Management Office's decision to skew new issuance away from long-dated gilts eased pressure on the long end and the bank surcharge increase proved smaller than some investors had feared.

📋 Other Stories

Thailand's Supreme Court Rules That Bitcoin Is Property Under Criminal Law

Thailand's Supreme Court has ruled that Bitcoin qualifies as "property" under the country's criminal law, in judgment 4929/2569, a decision that strengthens the legal basis for prosecuting theft and fraud involving cryptoassets and for recovering stolen coins for victims.

Netherlands Plans 25,000 Civil Service Job Cuts as Part of AI-Related Savings

The Dutch government plans to eliminate about 25,000 civil service jobs, more than 15 percent of the workforce, as part of savings it links to the adoption of artificial intelligence, one of the largest public sector workforce reductions in Europe to be tied explicitly to AI.

Prince Group Liquidators Place 30 Entities Into Liquidation in the British Virgin Islands

Liquidators have placed 30 British Virgin Islands entities linked to Cambodia's Prince Group into liquidation, compared with 28 on the US sanctions list, and allege that more than 90,000 of the over 120,000 Bitcoin seized by US authorities flowed through linked entities. Victims in any jurisdiction may be able to file claims, although no claims process has yet been established.

Russia Orders Apple and Microsoft to Store User Data for Three Years

Russia now requires Apple and Microsoft to store user data for three years and to provide it to the security services on request, with fines or blocking as penalties for non-compliance, further tightening state control over foreign technology platforms operating in the country.

📅 Looking Ahead: October to December 2026

29th October: US third quarter GDP and September PCE inflation at 12:30 GMT; the European Central Bank announces its decision at 13:15 GMT, with a hold at 2.5 percent expected; Amazon, Coinbase and Intel report after the US close; the Bank of Japan's meeting continues.

30th October: The Bank of Japan announces its policy decision, with a hawkish hold expected; euro area third quarter GDP and October inflation readings; Brazil's crypto licensing deadline; Kioxia reports quarterly earnings.

1st November: OPEC+ meets to set December output targets; Strategy's first daily STRC dividend record date, with payment on 2nd November.

2nd November: Apple reports earnings.

3rd November: US midterm elections; the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision.

4th November: The XRP Ledger's fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is scheduled to activate; about 179,706 HYPE redeemed by HyperLabs is due to arrive.

5th November: The Bank of England announces its Monetary Policy Committee decision, with Bank Rate at 3.75 percent.

18th November: Deadline for responses to the FCA's cryptoasset perimeter guidance consultation CP26/36.

9th December: FOMC decision, with futures pricing about an 80 to 85 percent chance of a quarter point hike. 15th December: CFTC public roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading and tokenisation.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This briefing is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The Digital Commonwealth Limited does not recommend that any cryptocurrency or digital asset be bought, sold, or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this briefing has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. DCW makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness. All views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Digital Commonwealth Limited or its affiliates.

EAJW (c) 2026 The Digital Commonwealth Limited. All rights reserved.

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