DCW DAILY BRIEF-Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech & Web3 Market Intelligence

DCW DAILY BRIEF

Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech and Web3 Market Intelligence

Date: Tuesday 3rd November 2026 | Edition 570 | Updated 06:00 GMT

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James Bowater

linkedin.com/in/james-bowater-b47612 | Twitter/X: X.com@JamesBowater

https://www.dcwi.co.uk/

📖 QUICK READ

Tuesday 3rd November 2026, Iran War Day 249, opens with Americans voting in the midterm elections and markets pulled between peace hopes in the Gulf and a deepening rout in chipmakers. Brent crude settled 7.63 percent lower at $104.77 a barrel on Monday, its biggest daily fall since 27th July, after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had given the government authority to pursue talks and President Trump said a deal was possible, but prices recovered by about 1 to 1.75 percent in Asian trading after US officials confirmed limited, defensive strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. On Wall Street the S&P 500 fell 0.51 percent to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.07 percent to 25,164.32, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41 percent to 51,983.98; a three-day slide of 12 percent in chipmakers has pushed the Nasdaq 100 into a technical correction. Apple beat forecasts in John Ternus's first quarter as Chief Executive but warned of unprecedented memory costs. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.85 percent in a 6-3 vote, the highest since 2008, and China's central bank moved to slow the yuan's rally.

Crypto market snapshot in the European morning, with total market capitalisation of approximately $2.57 trillion and the CoinGlass Fear and Greed Index at 27 in Fear territory: Bitcoin is near $76,500 to $77,000, down about 2 percent after erasing Monday's rebound; Ether is near $2,250, down about 1.7 percent; XRP is near $1.25; Solana is near $92; Cardano is near $0.187; and Dogecoin is near $0.074, with BNB slipping below $700 and Zcash down nearly 10 percent.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6 million on Monday as BlackRock's IBIT recorded its largest single-day outflow since 26th June, while Ether ETFs lost $139.8 million, taking combined crypto ETF redemptions to more than $1 billion over two sessions. Binance began the second phase of its withdrawal reopening at 04:00 UTC today across networks including Ethereum, Solana, XRP Ledger and Tron. Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to Underweight, South Korea's regulator told exchanges to hold more assets in cold storage, and the Bank of England, expected to raise Bank Rate to 4 percent, decides on Thursday ahead of Friday's US jobs report.

🔥 HOT OFF THE PRESS

Oil Suffers Its Biggest Fall Since July on US-Iran Peace Hopes Before Strikes on Qeshm Island Revive the Risk Premium, While the Nasdaq 100 Slides Into a Correction on Election Day

Brent crude for January delivery fell $8.66, or 7.63 percent, to settle at $104.77 a barrel on Monday, and US crude dropped about 7.4 percent to near $96.50, back below $100, after Washington and Tehran both signalled that diplomacy should be given a chance. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government certain authorities over peace talks and that Tehran would try to resolve the problem through dialogue, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiators in Qatar were working on a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington met a series of conditions, and President Trump said a deal was possible and, asked whether he would resume strikes after the vote, answered no. Vice President JD Vance said the US had made good progress and had set no deadline for an agreement. Late on Monday, however, US officials told the Wall Street Journal, CNN and NBC that American forces had carried out limited strikes on Qeshm, the largest island in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting radar and missile launchers after Iran fired on a US aircraft, describing the action as defensive and part of a series of unpublicised strikes in recent weeks rather than a return to major combat. Iranian state media reported several explosions on the island, and Brent rose to between $105.80 and $106.60 in Asian trading on Tuesday.

In equities, the AI correction deepened into a third session. A gauge of US chipmakers has now fallen 12 percent over three days and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped 10 percent from its October peak, meeting the definition of a technical correction, even though most stocks on Wall Street rose on Monday as cheaper oil lifted consumer, industrial and financial shares. The S&P 500 erased an early gain of as much as 1.1 percent to close down 0.51 percent, and the selling spread to chip-heavy Asian markets on Tuesday. Crypto followed technology rather than oil: Bitcoin fell about 2 percent to just under $77,000 in Asian hours, below the roughly $77,600 low it touched late on Sunday, and total crypto market capitalisation dropped about 2.5 percent to near $2.57 trillion, a near two-month low, as traders prepared for midterm results that will begin to arrive as Asian markets open on Wednesday.

📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Iran War Day 249 finds markets split between relief over energy and anxiety over technology. On Monday the S&P 500 fell 38.67 points, or 0.51 percent, to 7,541.40, the Nasdaq Composite 272.68 points, or 1.07 percent, to 25,164.32 and the Russell 2000 0.21 percent to 2,805.88, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 213.67 points, or 0.41 percent, to 51,983.98. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors gained and advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2.2 to one, but energy fell nearly 4 percent and technology weakened as Marvell's all-stock agreement to buy Lumentum and Oracle's $20 billion funding filing revived concerns about AI spending. In Asia on Tuesday the KOSPI led losses, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.7 percent, the Hang Seng edged higher and Japanese markets were closed for Culture Day, while US stock futures were between 0.1 and 0.5 percent lower in early European trading.

The geopolitical picture moved quickly in both directions. Tehran said contacts with Washington to end the eight-month war were continuing after days of talks with Qatari mediators produced altered proposals but no breakthrough, and Qatar, backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, is leading efforts to bring the two sides together. The confirmation late on Monday of limited US strikes on Qeshm Island, which officials described as defensive and a continuation of unannounced operations, put part of the risk premium back into oil, with KCM Trade's Tim Waterer saying the reminder of military activity had flipped the tone just as markets began to price a diplomatic path. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have downed two US drones near the island, a claim a US official described as false. In Australia the Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate to 4.85 percent, and in China the People's Bank raised banks' foreign exchange reserve requirement to slow the yuan's advance.

Bitcoin is trading near $76,500 to $77,000 on Tuesday, down about 2 percent over 24 hours and about 3.6 percent over seven days, testing its 100-day moving average near $76,460 after failing to hold Monday's bounce. Ether is near $2,250, XRP near $1.25 and Solana near $92, and total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.57 trillion after a fall of about 2.5 percent. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6 million on Monday after $643.3 million on Friday, and Ether ETFs lost a further $139.8 million, while the CoinGlass Fear and Greed Index fell 11 points to 27.

Eight dominant narratives define Tuesday 3rd November: (1) Oil Records Its Biggest Fall Since July as Iran and the US Signal Openness to Talks; (2) US Strikes on Qeshm Island Lift Brent Back Above $105; (3) The Nasdaq 100 Enters a Correction as Chipmakers Extend a Three-Day Rout to 12 Percent; (4) Apple Beats in Ternus's First Quarter but Guides Margins Lower on Unprecedented Memory Costs; (5) Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000 as Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Lose More Than $500 Million in a Day; (6) The RBA Raises Rates to an 18-Year High of 4.85 Percent in a Split Vote; (7) The PBOC Raises the FX Reserve Requirement to 6 Percent to Cool the Yuan; (8) Americans Vote in Midterm Elections That Will Shape Crypto Legislation and the Course of the Iran War.

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

"What we're seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented."

~ John Ternus, Chief Executive of Apple, on the company's fiscal fourth quarter earnings call on Monday 2nd November, his first since succeeding Tim Cook, as Apple guided December quarter gross margin down to 45 to 46 percent

📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES

💹 MARKETS

Wall Street Splits as Oil Lifts the Dow and Chips Sink the Nasdaq, the KOSPI Slides Again and London Extends Its Winning Run

US equities started November with a sharp divergence between the old economy and the AI trade. The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.1 percent in the morning, helped by an ISM manufacturing reading of 55.5 that beat forecasts and by the collapse in oil, but reversed to close 0.51 percent lower at 7,541.40 as Nvidia swung from an early gain of about 2.6 percent to a loss of 1.26 percent at $202.06. Microsoft fell 2.83 percent and took about 12.8 points off the index, Apple about 10.7 points and Nvidia 7.3 points, while Amazon rose 2.2 percent and Berkshire Hathaway and Visa also gained. Energy was the weakest sector, down 3.96 percent, AMD extended Friday's 11 percent fall ahead of its results after the close today, and Broadcom slipped 1.18 percent. The Dow was the only major index to finish higher, at 51,983.98, as investors rotated into consumer, financial and industrial blue chips, and all four main indices remain higher for the year, with the S&P 500 up about 10.2 percent. Today brings JOLTS job openings and September factory orders alongside the midterm vote.

Asian equities fell on Tuesday as the chip rout overwhelmed the benefit of cheaper oil. South Korea's KOSPI closed down about 3.3 percent near 5,666 according to Saxo, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics giving up Monday's gains, the Kosdaq fell about 3.8 percent and the won was the weakest major currency on Monday, while Taiwan's TAIEX lost about 1.2 percent in early trade and the MSCI Asia Pacific index fell almost 1 percent. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.7 percent to 3,614.17 even after the central bank said it would encourage wider use of market support tools, while the Hang Seng rose about 0.3 percent to 23,469.64 and Australia's ASX 200 gained 0.28 percent after the rate decision as bond yields fell. Tokyo was closed for Culture Day. In London on Monday the FTSE 100 rose 31.55 points, or 0.29 percent, to 10,761.33, its fourth straight gain, as International Consolidated Airlines Group rose 3.8 percent and industrial miners advanced, while Ithaca Energy fell 5.94 percent, BP 4.37 percent and Shell 2.86 percent on the oil slump. Germany's DAX rose 0.6 percent, and France's CAC 40 1 percent.

📈 MARKET OVERVIEW TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP: APPROXIMATELY $2.57 TRILLION | Tuesday 3rd November 2026

Total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.57 trillion on Tuesday, down about 2.5 percent over 24 hours and at a near two-month low, according to TradingKey, as voting began in the US midterm elections and the sell-off in technology shares spilled into digital assets. Selling was broad: Zcash, which had led the majors on Monday, tumbled nearly 10 percent to about $1,140, BNB fell about 2 percent to slip below $700, Hyperliquid's HYPE dropped about 5 percent to near $84 and Solana fell about 3 percent, while Tron was the only major token in the green, up about 2 percent. Bitcoin liquidations reached about $88.8 million over 24 hours as leveraged long positions were unwound. Institutional demand remains the weak point, with spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs together losing about $539 million on Monday, which suggests institutional capital is still retreating.

₿ BITCOIN (BTC) approx $76,500-$77,000

Bitcoin fell about 2 percent to just under $77,000 during Tuesday's Asian morning, erasing Monday's rebound and trading below the roughly $77,600 level it reached late on Sunday, with crypto.news putting the price near $76,455 and the seven-day decline at about 3.6 percent. Its market capitalisation is about $1.54 trillion on 24 hour volume of about $26.6 billion. Traders are watching the 100-day moving average near $76,463: KuCoin analysis notes that a close back above $77,600 would suggest a leveraged flush rather than a change of trend, while a decisive break would open the next leg lower. Bitcoin.com points out that in each of the last three cycles Bitcoin bottomed between 13 and 71 days after a US midterm election, while CoinDesk reports that some traders see the potential for a post-election squeeze given large short positions and continued withdrawals from exchanges.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $398.62 million on Monday 2nd November, according to SoSoValue and Farside data, following $643.3 million on Friday. The selling was concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, which lost $405.3 million, its largest single-day outflow since 26th June, while Fidelity's FBTC took in $6.68 million and every other fund, including Grayscale's GBTC, Bitwise, ARK and Morgan Stanley's MSBT, recorded zero net flows. Total net assets stand at $98.12 billion, about 6.36 percent of Bitcoin's market capitalisation, with cumulative net inflows since launch of $56.58 billion and $1.99 billion of value traded on the day. TradingKey notes that the two sessions together took more than $1 billion out of the products.

Immediate support lies at $76,460, the 100-day moving average, then $76,000 and $75,600, near the 50-week moving average, with $75,000 below, while resistance sits at $77,600, then $78,500 and $80,000, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

 ETHEREUM (ETH) approx $2,240-$2,260

Ether is trading near $2,250 on Tuesday, down about 1.7 to 2 percent over 24 hours, with a market capitalisation of about $274.8 billion and 24 hour volume of about $9.8 billion, after spending Monday near $2,290. US spot Ether ETFs recorded net outflows of $139.80 million on Monday, according to SoSoValue, almost entirely from BlackRock's ETHA, which lost $138.31 million, with ETHB losing $4.63 million while Morgan Stanley's fund took in $3.15 million. Total net assets have slipped to $13.18 billion, about 4.80 percent of Ether's market capitalisation, against cumulative net inflows of $12.15 billion, with $577.8 million traded on the day.

Ethereum is among the networks included in the second phase of Binance's withdrawal reopening, which began progressively from 04:00 UTC on Tuesday, alongside layer two routes on Arbitrum, Optimism and Base, adding to the ETH, USDT and USDC withdrawals restored on Ethereum mainnet in the first phase. On-chain, staking continues to absorb supply even as ETF holders sell, with staking inflows of almost 8 million ETH in the first nine months of the year taking close to 36 percent of all Ether into validation, according to data cited by Crypto Daily.

Immediate support lies at $2,230, then $2,200 and $2,177, last Friday's low, while resistance sits at $2,290, then $2,300 and $2,385, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

🔷 XRP (XRP) approx $1.24-$1.26

XRP is holding near $1.25 on Tuesday, barely changed over 24 hours and outperforming most large tokens, with a market capitalisation of about $79.2 billion and 24 hour volume of about $1.35 billion. US spot XRP ETFs recorded a small net outflow of $529,510 on Monday, led by Canary Capital's fund, according to SoSoValue, leaving cumulative net inflows at $1.81 billion and net assets at $1.42 billion, about 1.80 percent of market capitalisation. The XRP Ledger is included in the second phase of Binance's withdrawal reopening that began today, and the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment remains scheduled to activate on Wednesday.

Immediate support lies at $1.22, then $1.20 and $1.15, while resistance sits at $1.28, then $1.30 and $1.34, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

◎ SOLANA (SOL) approx $91-$93

Solana fell about 3 percent to around $92 on Tuesday, one of the weaker large tokens, with a market capitalisation of about $54.2 billion, extending its move away from the $99 to $100 zone that analysts had flagged as key support. US spot Solana ETFs recorded no net flows on Monday, leaving cumulative net inflows at $1.47 billion and net assets at $1.36 billion, about 2.51 percent of market capitalisation, while Solana is one of the networks in the second phase of Binance's withdrawal reopening.

Immediate support lies at $90, then $87 and $85, while resistance sits at $95, then $97 and $100, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

₳ CARDANO (ADA) approx $0.186-$0.189

Cardano is trading around $0.187 on Tuesday, down about 2.2 percent over 24 hours and about 8.7 percent over seven days, according to CoinGecko, with a market capitalisation of roughly $6.9 billion, after slipping further below the $0.19 to $0.20 zone it held last week. The decline comes despite continued progress towards the Dijkstra hard fork, a reminder that network development is currently secondary to broader market direction and risk appetite.

The $0.185 mark provides immediate support, with $0.18 beneath it, while resistance sits at $0.19, then $0.20 and $0.206, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

💕 DOGECOIN (DOGE) approx $0.073-$0.075

Dogecoin is trading around $0.074 on Tuesday, down about 1.5 to 2.6 percent over 24 hours within a range of about $0.0732 to $0.0761, with a market capitalisation of about $11.6 billion, as meme coins followed the wider market lower rather than offering a speculative refuge.

The $0.073 level provides immediate support, with $0.070 below it, while resistance sits at $0.0765, then $0.080 and $0.082, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

😱 Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Sentiment Falls Back to 27 as Fear Returns

CoinGlass's Fear and Greed Index stood at 27 on Tuesday, down 11 points from 38 on Monday and below last Friday's low of 29, with a seven day average of 37 and a 30 day average of 54, according to data cited by ChainCatcher, while the reading tracked by CoinStats was 33. The reversal ends a three-day recovery that followed the orderly reopening of Binance withdrawals and reflects renewed ETF outflows, the slide in technology shares and caution ahead of the midterm results.

🏛 Traditional Markets Context

Treasuries extended October's gains, their biggest monthly advance in more than two years, as the oil slump eased concern that energy-driven inflation would force further Fed hikes. The ten year yield fell about 3 basis points to near 4.90 percent after touching about 4.87 percent intraday, its lowest since 10th September, the 30 year fell about 4 basis points to near 5.27 percent and the two year was little changed near 4.59 percent, steepening the curve to about 32 basis points. The Treasury said it expects to borrow $618 billion in the fourth quarter, $10 billion less than projected in August, ahead of Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement. The dollar index touched a one-month low on Monday and traded near 101.76 early on Tuesday, while the dollar held near 157.9 yen and sterling rose to about $1.342.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar softened against the yen and the New Zealand dollar after the RBA's split decision to hike, and the offshore yuan headed for its first fall in almost three weeks after the PBOC's reserve requirement move. Across commodities, Brent is near $106 after Monday's plunge and the Qeshm strikes, gold is near $3,930 after rebounding from a one-year low, silver is back below $50 and copper rose on Monday as the technology sell-off paused for metals. The central bank calendar now turns to the Bank of England on Thursday, with markets and many economists expecting a rise in Bank Rate to 4 percent.

🏢 INSTITUTIONAL & CORPORATE

Apple Beats in John Ternus's First Quarter but Warns on Memory Costs, Oracle Files for $20 Billion and Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase to Underweight

Apple reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12 percent from $102.5 billion and a September quarter record, and earnings of $2.10 per share, against FactSet consensus of $1.99 and $113.4 billion, although $0.05 of the earnings came from tariff refunds and a lower tax rate contributed a further $0.04. iPhone revenue rose about 17 percent to a September quarter record of $57.6 billion and Mac revenue rose about 24 percent to $10.79 billion, while iPad and Wearables declined and Greater China revenue of $17.54 billion missed estimates of about $18.75 billion; the fiscal year produced record revenue of about $479 billion. Gross margin was 47.9 percent, including about one point from tariff refunds. For the December quarter Apple guided revenue growth of 7 to 10 percent, above the 6.1 percent analyst average compiled by LSEG, with Services growth of 8 to 9 percent, but a gross margin of 45 to 46 percent against expectations of about 46.3 percent, citing higher memory costs and Siri AI expenses, and said memory costs would keep rising beyond December while iPhone Duo demand exceeds supply. The shares closed 1.83 percent lower at $338.32 and traded between flat and about 3 percent lower after hours.

Oracle fell 8.8 percent to $119.22 on Monday, extending a three-day decline to about 17.5 percent, after filing to sell $10 billion of common stock and $10 billion of senior notes to finance its AI infrastructure build-out, a plan it outlined at last week's investor day when it capped additional capital raising through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion excluding refinancing and forecast at least $225 billion of revenue in fiscal 2030. The shares are down about 33 percent this year, and the company was downgraded by S&P to BBB-, one notch above high yield, in July. In crypto equities, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys downgraded Coinbase to Underweight from Equal Weight and cut his price target to $120 from $258, below Friday's close of $143.54, reducing 2027 and 2028 revenue forecasts by 28 percent and 18 percent and adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 47 percent and 25 percent, and lowering the EBITDA multiple to 12 times from 20. He cited weak October trading, with fourth quarter transaction revenue of about $165 million through 25th October, and the risk that the Binance hack depresses activity further. Coinbase was down about 3.3 percent near $138 during Monday's session.

⚖️ REGULATORY & POLICY

South Korea Orders Exchanges to Hold More in Cold Storage, Washington's Crypto Agenda Awaits the Midterm Verdict and the EBA Prepares to Take Direct Supervision of USDC

In South Korea, the Financial Services Commission held an emergency meeting on Monday, chaired by Yoo Young-jun, director general for digital finance policy, with the Financial Supervisory Service, the Financial Security Institute, the DAXA exchange alliance and major operators to assess the impact of the Binance hack. The FSC inspected access controls to exchange systems, approval and signing procedures for hot wallet withdrawals and the management of administrator privileges, and urged exchanges to raise the share of customer assets held in cold wallets beyond the legal minimum of 80 percent, to monitor deposits and withdrawals continuously, to add emergency response staff and to set aside further reserves. Officials said on Tuesday that the regulator is also reviewing whether withdrawal restriction rules should be revised, since it is unclear whether exchanges may restrict withdrawals to protect users when a hack occurs at another venue.

In the United States, today's midterm elections will decide control of Congress and could help fill vacancies at the SEC and CFTC, which have advanced crypto rulemaking in the absence of market structure legislation. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill has praised SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig for their rulemaking but stressed that only Congress can make the changes permanent, and the CFTC, whose governing statute sets no minimum quorum, can continue to act with a single commissioner. Selig has argued that the Binance theft proves the case for the federal registration route for offshore exchanges that the CFTC proposed on 5th October, with comments due by 14th December, and the post-election committee line-up will determine whether any revived market structure bill can be completed in the next Congress.

In the European Union, the European Banking Authority will take over direct supervision of USDC's own funds, reserve assets, liquidity requirements and recovery and redemption plans from 12th November, after classifying it as the first significant e-money token among the 45 notified under MiCA, with France's ACPR retaining oversight of governance and other areas. The handover will be the first practical test of MiCA's dual supervision model for large stablecoins, and the EBA will reassess the status of each token annually, so other dollar and euro tokens could follow as they grow.

📦 COMMODITIES

🪙 Gold: Trading approx $3,920-$3,950/oz

Spot gold rose about 2.1 percent on Monday to around $3,957 an ounce, recovering from last week's one-year low, and December COMEX futures settled 1.8 percent higher at $3,969.60, as the fall in oil and lower Treasury yields eased fears of further Fed tightening. The metal gave back part of that gain on Tuesday, with spot gold down about 0.5 percent to near $3,926 and COMEX futures near $3,957, as expectations that US rates will stay high for longer and renewed uncertainty after the Qeshm strikes kept investors cautious. Kotak Mahindra AMC's Satish Dondapati noted that gold had corrected nearly 3 percent in dollar terms over the past week, and the metal remains about 5 percent lower over the past month.

🛢️ Brent Crude: approx $105-$107/bbl

Brent fell 7.63 percent to settle at $104.77 a barrel on Monday, its biggest daily percentage fall since 27th July, and WTI fell about 7.4 percent to settle near $96.50, as both governments signalled openness to diplomacy and trend-following funds cut their long Brent positioning to 91 percent from 100 percent at the start of the session, according to Kpler's Bridgeton Research Group. Prices rebounded on Tuesday after the reported US strike on Qeshm Island, with Brent up between 0.5 and 1.75 percent at about $105.25 to $106.60 and WTI at about $96.90 to $98.10. No agreement has yet restored normal shipping through Hormuz, and ADNOC's chief executive said the world has drained nearly one billion barrels from inventories since the war disrupted the strait. Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent forecast to $105, while ANZ sees Brent ending the year at $105 and UBS at $110.

🟠 Copper: Trading approx $6.50-$6.55/lb ($14,330-$14,440/t)

Copper futures climbed towards $6.55 a pound on Monday, up about 1.3 to 1.5 percent and snapping a two-day decline as the sell-off in technology shares lost momentum for metals and cheaper energy improved the outlook for industrial demand. In London, industrial miners advanced across the board, with Antofagasta up 2.3 percent, Anglo American 1.8 percent and Rio Tinto 1.1 percent.

⚪ Silver: approx $49.50-$50.50/oz

Silver rose about 3.8 percent on Monday to around $50.88 an ounce on Kitco's late New York quote, after trading between $49.01 and $51.38, as Heraeus noted that India has issued permits for around 6,500 tonnes of silver imports over the next six months. It fell back on Tuesday, with spot silver down about 1.8 percent to near $49.71 and COMEX futures down about 1.1 percent near $50.31.

🪙 Platinum: Trading approx $1,440-$1,460/oz

Platinum lagged the other precious metals early on Monday before firming to about $1,459 an ounce late in New York, up about 1.7 percent, and edged about 0.2 percent lower on Tuesday to near $1,447, still close to the 13-month low it touched last week.

📝 MARKET NARRATIVE & ANALYSIS

Tuesday 3rd November 2026 shows how quickly the crypto market's focus has shifted from Binance to macro. The exchange's reopening is proceeding as planned, with the second phase starting this morning, but Bitcoin has traded with technology shares rather than with the broad relief rally that cheaper oil produced on Monday, and the loss of $77,000 places the 100-day moving average near $76,460 in focus. The flows are the clearest signal: Bitcoin ETFs have lost more than $1 billion in two sessions, BlackRock's IBIT alone recorded its largest outflow since June, and Ether ETFs continue to bleed, so the institutional bid that supported prices through the summer is not present. The fall in the Fear and Greed Index to 27 suggests positioning is cautious enough for a relief move if the midterm outcome is clear, but sustained recovery needs ETF demand to return, and history around previous midterms argues for patience.

In equities, the market is separating AI spending from the wider economy. Monday's session saw most stocks rise on cheaper energy and a strong ISM reading while chipmakers fell for a third day and the Nasdaq 100 entered a correction, and Oracle's $20 billion funding filing and Marvell's all-stock bid for Lumentum reinforced the sense that the AI build-out increasingly depends on capital markets. Apple's results offered a different message: demand is robust, with a record September quarter and December guidance above consensus, but memory costs driven by AI data centres are eroding hardware margins, which means even companies with limited direct exposure to AI capital spending are paying for it. With AMD reporting tonight, and Qualcomm and Arm on Wednesday, the chip sector faces further tests before Nvidia's results on 17th November.

For monetary policy and geopolitics, the picture is more balanced than a week ago. The oil slump, if sustained, would ease the inflation pressure that has pushed central banks to tighten, and Treasury yields have already fallen to two-month lows, but the RBA's split decision to hike, Thursday's expected Bank of England rise and the Qeshm strikes show that the energy shock has not yet passed. The midterm results, which begin to arrive during Wednesday's Asian session, will shape both the legislative outlook for crypto and the administration's room to pursue a deal with Iran; a clear outcome followed by progress in the Qatar talks would support bonds, cyclicals and risk assets, while a breakdown in talks after the vote would push Brent back towards its October highs.

💸 STABLECOINS, TOKENISATION & REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS

Stablecoins: Circle's USDC Treasury minted 1 billion USDC on Solana on Monday in four transactions of 250 million each within about 10 minutes, a sign of renewed institutional demand for on-chain dollars as Binance's stablecoin withdrawal routes reopen. CoinDesk Research reports that total stablecoin market capitalisation rose 0.10 percent month on month to $305.5 billion in October, with USDC declining 2.8 percent while Tether kept its leading position, even as average daily on-chain trading volume fell sharply. In South Korea, Gyeonggi Province has suspended a stablecoin introduction project that had been scheduled for completion in February 2027, illustrating the uncertainty facing local government pilots while national stablecoin legislation remains unsettled.

Tokenisation: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced on Monday that Ensemble TX will provide 24/7 interbank settlement of tokenised deposits in tokenised central bank money, with participants rising to 12 banks and 20 industry pioneers, and Standard Chartered launched tokenised deposits in Hong Kong, the first in its global network, allowing corporate treasurers, banks and digital asset businesses to transfer deposits in real time across participating banks with settlement in central bank money, including wholesale CBDC. In the United States, NYSE added Broadridge, Computershare, Equiniti and Superstate as transfer agents for its planned tokenised securities venue, joining Securitize and tZERO, for a platform designed to offer 24/7 trading, instant settlement and stablecoin funding, subject to regulatory approval. CoinDesk Research puts tokenised real-world assets at a record $34.5 billion in October, led by private credit and tokenised equities.

Regulatory frameworks: The Binance theft is turning exchange custody architecture into a supervisory priority on several continents. Beyond South Korea's push for higher cold storage ratios, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has argued that offshore venues lack the safeguards of US markets and should have a federal route to register under US cybersecurity standards, and CoinDesk data show Binance has used about half of the Bitcoin in its SAFU emergency fund, worth about $580 million, while covering the loss. At the same time, Hong Kong's decision to settle tokenised deposits in central bank money around the clock, and the EBA's imminent supervision of USDC, show regulators building the settlement and prudential infrastructure that will determine whether bank tokens or stablecoins become the dominant form of on-chain money.

🤖 TECHNOLOGY, AI & INNOVATION

Marvell Agrees a $115 Billion All-Stock Deal for Lumentum, Anthropic's Amended Filing Shows a Swing to an Operating Loss, and Google Unveils Genie 4

Technology: Marvell Technology agreed on Monday to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock transaction that gives the optical component maker an implied enterprise value of $115 billion, about $1,132 per share and a premium of about 23.9 percent to its unaffected price, with Lumentum shareholders receiving 4.5 Marvell shares for each share and owning about a third of the combined company. The deal pairs Marvell's digital signal processors with Lumentum's lasers and transceivers as AI clusters move from copper to optical connections, and Lumentum's chief executive Michael Hurlston described a market opportunity of $550 billion. Lumentum, in which Nvidia took a $2 billion stake earlier this year, has said its data centre lasers are sold out into 2029, and the transaction is likely to draw close regulatory scrutiny given its size.

AI: Anthropic filed an amended S-1 on Monday adding third quarter results ahead of its planned Nasdaq listing, showing revenue of about $17 billion, up from $11.6 billion in the second quarter and $1.4 billion a year earlier, but an operating loss of $567 million after a second quarter operating profit of $974 million. Operating expenses rose to $17.5 billion, and the company attributed the loss mainly to $5.0 billion of compute bought under short-term commitments, which costs significantly more than multi-year capacity, and to $2.0 billion of non-cash donation-matching charges, with compute and infrastructure costs rising to about 58 percent of revenue from 48 percent. The filing discloses total compute and infrastructure commitments of about $895.4 billion and a net loss of $23.3 billion for the quarter, mostly from non-cash fair value charges on convertible notes.

Innovation: Google unveiled Genie 4, a new generation of its world simulation model, in its October roundup published on Monday, alongside the global rollout of Gemini 4 Argon and early access to Gemini 4 Carbon for cyber defenders, and confirmed that its Gemma 4 model had run on a data-centre-class TPU aboard a prototype satellite, an early milestone rather than a working orbital data centre. In Abu Dhabi, OpenAI signed four agreements at ADIPEC, including a deal making ADNOC the first energy company to deploy OpenAI Frontier on UAE-based inference, while SemiAnalysis launched GDPx, a frontier benchmark across 11 high-value domains such as chip design and cybersecurity, on which no model yet scores above about 12 percent.

🌍 GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY & MACROECONOMICS

In the United States, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, beating forecasts and marking a tenth straight month of expansion, with production at 59.0, its highest since November 2021, while the prices index eased 2.7 points to 75.2 and employment held near 52.3. JOLTS job openings and September factory orders follow today, ADP payrolls and the quarterly refunding on Wednesday and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with markets still weighing the chance of a December Fed hike after September's increase. The midterm elections, covering all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, will begin to report results overnight, and historically the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after each midterm since 1950.

In Europe, the final HCOB euro area manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.7 from a flash 52.4, a ninth month of expansion though output growth eased to a four-month low, with Germany also at 52.7. In the United Kingdom, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was confirmed at a five-month high of 52.8, with output rising at its fastest pace in 25 months and new orders at their strongest since July, but input costs rose for a 34th month and supplier lead times lengthened sharply, a combination that may concern the Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision at noon on Thursday alongside a new Monetary Policy Report, with markets and many economists expecting a 25 basis point rise in Bank Rate to 4 percent, which would be the first increase in three years.

In Asia Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent, the highest since November 2008 and its fifth increase of 2026, citing higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, tight capacity and rising inflation expectations, but six members voted for the rise and three to hold, and Governor Michele Bullock said the minority saw greater downside risks, and some economists now expect a pause in December. In China, the People's Bank said it will raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio by 2 percentage points to 6 percent from 15th November, reversing its 2023 cut and withdrawing about $24 billion of dollar liquidity by Reuters' calculation, after the yuan gained more than 5 percent this year; the onshore yuan fell as much as 0.37 percent to 6.6728, set for its biggest daily drop since May.

🔴 ELEVATED RISKS: Technology, Geopolitical & Macro

- Technology: AI Capital Intensity and Chip Valuations. The Nasdaq 100's correction, a 12 percent three-day fall in chipmakers, Oracle's $20 billion financing and Anthropic's swing to an operating loss on short-term compute costs show investors questioning how much capital the AI build-out requires and who will fund it. Results from AMD, Qualcomm and Arm this week and Nvidia on 17th November could extend the sell-off if guidance disappoints.

- Technology: Persistent Institutional Crypto Outflows. More than $1 billion has left spot Bitcoin ETFs in two sessions, Ether ETF redemptions continue and Morgan Stanley's Coinbase downgrade points to weak trading activity, leaving Bitcoin testing its 100-day moving average near $76,460 with little institutional demand to absorb further selling.

- Geopolitical: Diplomacy and Military Action Running in Parallel. The US strikes on Qeshm Island, Iranian claims of downed drones and continuing attacks on shipping show that limited hostilities persist even as both sides talk of a deal, and a breakdown in the Qatar-mediated process after the midterms could quickly reverse Monday's 7.6 percent fall in Brent.

- Geopolitical: Election Outcome and Policy Uncertainty. Today's vote will determine control of Congress, the fate of crypto market structure legislation and possibly appointments at the SEC and CFTC, while a contested or delayed result would add to volatility across assets as results arrive during Wednesday's Asian session.

- Macro: Continued Global Tightening. The RBA's move to an 18-year high, an expected Bank of England rise on Thursday, accelerating UK input costs and an ISM prices index still above 75 show inflation pressure persisting, and a strong US jobs report on Friday would revive expectations of a December Fed hike.

- Macro: Currency Management and Capital Flows in Asia. The PBOC's reserve requirement increase, the yuan's set-up for its biggest daily fall since May and the won's weakness as Korean chip stocks slide raise the risk of sharper currency moves that could spread volatility across emerging markets.

🟢 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS: Institutional & Regulatory

- Institutional: Binance Recovery Moves to Phase Two. The progressive reopening of withdrawals on networks including Ethereum, Solana, XRP Ledger, Sui, Tron and Base from 04:00 UTC today, together with restored fiat withdrawals and replenishment of about 95 percent of the stolen assets from company funds, shows the largest exchange working through the record theft in an orderly manner.

- Institutional: Resilient Consumer Demand at Apple. A record September quarter, iPhone revenue of $57.6 billion and December quarter revenue guidance of 7 to 10 percent growth, above consensus, show that consumer technology demand remains strong despite higher prices, offering a counterweight to concern over AI spending.

- Institutional: Broadening Equity Leadership. Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose on Monday, advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by more than two to one, the Dow gained and the FTSE 100 recorded a fourth straight rise, suggesting the sell-off remains concentrated in AI and semiconductors rather than spreading across the market.

- Regulatory: Faster Supervisory Response to Exchange Risk. South Korea's emergency inspection of hot wallet controls, signing procedures and administrator privileges, and its call for higher cold storage and reserves, show regulators moving quickly to apply the lessons of the Binance theft before similar weaknesses can be exploited elsewhere.

- Regulatory: Central Bank Money for Tokenised Settlement. The HKMA's move to 24/7 settlement of tokenised deposits in central bank money, with 12 participating banks, and Standard Chartered's launch of tokenised deposits on that infrastructure, give institutions a regulated route to round-the-clock on-chain payments.

- Regulatory: Stronger Prudential Oversight of the Largest Stablecoins. The EBA's direct supervision of USDC's reserves, liquidity and redemption plans from 12th November, and NYSE's expansion of its transfer agent network for tokenised securities, strengthen the institutional foundations for stablecoin settlement and tokenised markets.

📋 Other Stories

BP Completes the Sale of a 65 Percent Stake in Castrol to Stonepeak for $6 Billion

BP has completed the sale of a 65 percent stake in its Castrol lubricants business to US investment firm Stonepeak for after-tax proceeds of $6 billion, retaining a 35 percent holding, with Castrol now operating as a standalone company and former Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden appointed chair of its new board.

Palantir's Quarterly Revenue Passes $2 Billion as US Commercial Sales Overtake Government

Palantir reported third quarter revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96 percent, with US commercial revenue of $984 million surpassing US government revenue of $953 million for the first time and GAAP net income of $1.128 billion, although the shares fell about 2.6 percent after hours, despite a higher full-year revenue outlook, as sequential commercial customer additions disappointed.

More Than $106 Million Stolen From a European Entity's Exchange Accounts

An unidentified European Union entity lost more than $106 million in USDC and USDT from multiple centralised exchange accounts on 1st November, according to on-chain investigator ZachXBT, adding to a run of large thefts that have kept account security and withdrawal controls in focus across the industry.

TotalEnergies Takes a 30 Percent Operated Stake in Two Malaysian Offshore Gas Fields

TotalEnergies has agreed to acquire a 30 percent operated stake in Malaysia's Lang Lebah and B14 offshore gas fields, a project expected to unlock more than 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, adding to its gas portfolio in South East Asia.

📅 Looking Ahead: November 2026 to February 2027

3rd November: US midterm elections; US JOLTS job openings and September factory orders; AMD reports after the close; Binance's second phase of withdrawals rolls out from 04:00 UTC; Japanese markets closed for Culture Day.

4th November: Euro area flash inflation estimate for October; US ADP payrolls; US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; Qualcomm and Arm report; the XRP Ledger's fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is scheduled to activate; Binance's next proof of reserves snapshot covering more tokens.

5th November: The Bank of England announces its Monetary Policy Committee decision and Monetary Policy Report at noon, with a rise in Bank Rate to 4 percent expected.

6th November: US October nonfarm payrolls; Brazil's cut-off for supervised banks serving unauthorised crypto providers.

12th November: The EBA begins direct supervision of USDC under MiCA. 15th November: China's higher foreign exchange reserve requirement of 6 percent takes effect.

Mid-November: Anthropic's targeted Nasdaq listing. 17th November: Nvidia reports quarterly results. 18th November: Deadline for responses to the FCA's DeFi guidance consultation GC26/7 and cryptoasset perimeter consultation CP26/36. 19th November: Deadline for comments on the FASB stablecoin accounting proposal.

25th November: Second estimate of US third quarter GDP. 29th November: Full OPEC+ ministerial meeting to decide 2027 production quotas.

8th December: Reserve Bank of Australia decision. 9th December: FOMC decision. 14th December: Comment deadline for the CFTC's crypto asset market proposal. 15th December: CFTC public roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading and tokenisation.

7th February 2027: Christine Lagarde steps down as ECB President. 12th February 2027: The Bank of England's consultation on tokenised collateral in central clearing closes. 28th February 2027: The FCA's crypto authorisation application window closes.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This briefing is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The Digital Commonwealth Limited does not recommend that any cryptocurrency or digital asset be bought, sold, or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this briefing has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. DCW makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness. All views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Digital Commonwealth Limited or its affiliates.

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