DCW DAILY BRIEF-Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech & Web3 Market Intelligence

DCW DAILY BRIEF

Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech and Web3 Market Intelligence

Date: Wednesday 4th November 2026 | Edition 571 | Updated 06:00 GMT

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James Bowater

linkedin.com/in/james-bowater-b47612 | Twitter/X: X.com@JamesBowater

https://www.dcwi.co.uk/

📖 QUICK READ

Wednesday 4th November 2026, Iran War Day 250, opens with Democrats projected to have won control of both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections, a result that sent the dollar to a one-month low, pulled Treasury yields lower and lifted gold back above $4,000 an ounce. The Nikkei fell more than 4 percent at one point on fears that a Democratic Congress will slow the AI data-centre build-out before closing 1.42 percent lower, while Shanghai rose 2.16 percent and the Hang Seng 1.67 percent. On Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 0.36 percent to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.83 percent to 25,372.01 as chipmakers rebounded, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38 percent to 51,786.72 as Apple weighed; after the close AMD guided fourth quarter revenue to about $17 billion and Super Micro and Arista beat forecasts. Brent settled at $103.60, its lowest close since 7th October, and President Trump said Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran, while September JOLTS job openings rose to 7.52 million, the highest since May.

Crypto market snapshot in the European morning, with total market capitalisation of approximately $2.66 trillion and the CoinGlass Fear and Greed Index at 35 in Fear territory: Bitcoin is near $77,300 to $78,000 after briefly falling below $76,000 overnight as election results arrived; Ether is near $2,300, up about 2 percent; XRP is near $1.28; Solana is near $93; Cardano is near $0.19; and Dogecoin is near $0.075, with Zcash up about 7 percent and Monero about 4 percent.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $115.6 million on Tuesday, a third straight day of outflows that takes the three-session total to about $1.16 billion, while Ether ETFs lost $85.3 million, extending their run of outflows to seven days. Binance said hourly deposits had overtaken withdrawals, and the CFTC was sued by a Cboe and Citadel Securities backed group hours after approving perpetual futures on US stocks. Euro area flash inflation for October is published this morning, the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4 percent on Thursday and US payrolls follow on Friday.

🔥 HOT OFF THE PRESS

Democrats Sweep Both Houses of Congress in a Historic Midterm Result, Sending the Dollar to a One-Month Low, Gold Back Above $4,000 and Asian AI Stocks Into a Sharp Sell-Off

Democrats are projected to have won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, according to projections by CBS News, CNN and the Associated Press, having needed net gains of three House seats and four Senate seats. In the Senate, Democrats flipped Republican-held seats in states including Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas, according to Time's tally of AP calls, with Sherrod Brown returning in Ohio, Roy Cooper winning in North Carolina and Troy Jackson defeating Susan Collins in Maine, while Abdul El-Sayed held Michigan for the party to become the first Muslim elected to the Senate; races in Alaska and Mississippi remained close as counting continued. Time noted that a party capturing both chambers in a midterm has happened only five times since the Second World War. President Trump congratulated Democrats and said he would work with them, having earlier warned that he would veto Democratic legislation, and Capital Economics argued that the near-term policy shift is limited because Democrats lack a filibuster-proof Senate majority and the president retains his veto.

Markets read the result primarily through the lens of AI. Traders priced in tougher scrutiny of data-centre construction and the prospect of fiscal gridlock, so the Nikkei fell more than 4 percent at one stage to its lowest since May, SoftBank Group dropped as much as 8 percent and the KOSPI swung from an opening gain of about 3 percent to an intraday loss of nearly 4 percent before closing higher. The dollar index fell 0.6 percent to a one-month low of 101.27, the ten year Treasury yield dropped about 5 basis points to 4.915 percent and spot gold rose more than 2 percent to above $4,020, while Bitcoin slid from about $77,970 to $75,740 between 21:45 and 03:10 UTC before recovering to above $77,000. US stock futures reversed early losses to trade modestly higher, and European shares turned firmer after a nervous start, led by banks and renewable energy companies, while defence stocks fell on expectations of slower growth in US military spending.

📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Iran War Day 250 finds markets digesting a decisive shift in Washington. On Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 27.52 points, or 0.36 percent, to 7,568.92, snapping a three-day losing streak, the Nasdaq Composite 207.65 points, or 0.83 percent, to 25,372.01 and the Russell 2000 0.24 percent to 2,812.45, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 197.26 points, or 0.38 percent, to 51,786.72 as Apple dropped after its margin warning. Decliners outnumbered advancers by about 1.7 to one and the equal-weight S&P 500 lagged, with consumer staples and materials the weakest sectors, while the VIX closed just above 20. In Asia on Wednesday the Nikkei 225 closed 1.42 percent lower at 62,188.63, the KOSPI rose 0.62 percent to 5,683.80, the Shanghai Composite gained 2.16 percent to 3,686.17 and the Hang Seng 1.67 percent to 23,919.50, and by 10:00 CET the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.8 percent.

The geopolitical picture softened at the margin. President Trump told the Financial Times that the United States has no immediate plans to strike Iran, describing American forces as ready to act if needed and saying Washington was getting what it wanted in the indirect negotiations, while Qatar's Foreign Ministry said both sides were reviewing the mediators' proposals and that differences remained. Tehran's tone was harder: a senior Iranian official told Reuters that the two sides remain far from a deal, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran would not accept diplomacy based on coercion, and Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran remained in a state of war after the strike on Qeshm Island. Brent settled $1.17 lower at $103.60 on Tuesday and edged up to about $104.40 on Wednesday after industry data showed a large draw in US crude stocks.

Bitcoin is trading near $77,300 to $78,000 on Wednesday, up about 1 to 2 percent over 24 hours but about 4.5 percent lower over seven days, after briefly falling below $76,000 as the election results came in. Ether is near $2,300, XRP near $1.28 and Solana near $93, and total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.66 trillion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $115.6 million on Tuesday, a sharp slowdown from Monday's $398.6 million, and Ether ETFs lost a further $85.3 million, while the CoinGlass Fear and Greed Index rose 8 points to 35.

Eight dominant narratives define Wednesday 4th November: (1) Democrats Win Control of Both the House and the Senate; (2) Asian Chip Stocks Slide on Fears of Tighter AI and Data-Centre Scrutiny; (3) The Dollar Falls to a One-Month Low as Treasuries Rally; (4) Gold Climbs Back Above $4,000 an Ounce; (5) AMD, Super Micro and Arista Beat Forecasts as AI Infrastructure Demand Holds; (6) Trump Says There Are No Immediate Plans to Strike Iran as Brent Closes at a Four-Week Low; (7) JOLTS Job Openings Jump to 7.52 Million, Keeping a December Fed Hike in Play; (8) Bitcoin Recovers Above $77,000 as ETF Outflows Slow.

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

"We'll work with the Democrats, and we'll get along very well with them."

~ Donald Trump, President of the United States, on Wednesday 4th November, responding to projections that Democrats had won control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections

📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES

💹 MARKETS

Chipmakers Lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq While Apple Drags the Dow, Tokyo Swings on the Midterm Result and London Ends a Four-Day Winning Run

US equities rebounded unevenly on election day. Technology and semiconductor shares recovered after a three-day rout, with Nvidia rising 2.29 percent, Broadcom 3.07 percent, AMD 3.65 percent ahead of its results and Micron 2.58 percent, while Microsoft, Amazon and Meta each gained more than 2 percent; Bloomberg reported that every member of the chip index rose, and a group of eight AI-linked names accounted for more than the S&P 500's entire gain. Apple fell about 1.9 percent in its first full session after warning that memory costs will keep rising, pulling the Dow lower, and beneath the headline indices decliners outnumbered gainers. Among earnings, Fiserv jumped 12.46 percent on a beat and a $500 million fourth quarter buyback, while Shopify fell 8.74 percent after missing estimates for gross merchandise volume and subscription gross profit. Treasury yields rose after the JOLTS report and the VIX ended just above 20. Today brings ADP payrolls, the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and results from Qualcomm, Arm and Uber.

Asian equities had a volatile session as results arrived during trading hours. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 4 percent at its worst, to the lowest since May, as chip equipment maker Advantest, memory maker Kioxia, SoftBank Group and fibre-optic cable makers were sold heavily and a stronger yen weighed on exporters, before recovering to close 1.42 percent lower at 62,188.63. South Korea's KOSPI opened about 3 percent higher, fell as much as 4 percent as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped at least 4.5 percent, and then closed 0.62 percent higher at 5,683.80 as battery and pharmaceutical shares rose on hopes of policy support from a Democratic Congress. China's Shanghai Composite rallied 2.16 percent to 3,686.17 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.67 percent to 23,919.50, led by technology and healthcare, while Taiwan's TAIEX and Australia's ASX 200 fell and Singapore's benchmark approached a correction. In London on Tuesday the FTSE 100 fell 122.90 points, or 1.14 percent, to 10,638.43, ending a four-session winning streak and finishing as Europe's weakest major benchmark as miners and banks slid and Associated British Foods disappointed. On Wednesday European shares turned higher after a nervous start, with Germany's DAX up 0.6 percent and Spain's IBEX 35 up 1.6 percent by 10:00 CET, as Deutsche Bank rose 3.6 percent, Intesa Sanpaolo 3.3 percent and Orsted as much as 7.3 percent, while defence groups fell.

📈 MARKET OVERVIEW TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP: APPROXIMATELY $2.66 TRILLION | Wednesday 4th November 2026

Total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.66 trillion on Wednesday, slightly lower over 24 hours according to CoinGabbar data, after a volatile night in which the arrival of midterm results pushed Bitcoin briefly below $76,000 before buyers returned. Liquidations across the market reached about $657 million as leveraged positions were flushed, according to Analytics Insight, and Bitcoin dominance held near 57.8 percent. Privacy coins led the large-cap gainers, with Zcash up about 7.1 percent and Monero about 4.0 percent, while the Altcoin Season Index at 46 showed no broad rotation into smaller tokens. Santiment reported that bullish comments about Bitcoin are running at only about 0.51 for every bearish one, noting that many retail traders regard Republicans as friendlier to the industry, while crypto.news reported that Bitcoin futures funding rates have climbed to a two-month high.

₿ BITCOIN (BTC) approx $77,300-$78,000

Bitcoin is trading near $77,300 to $78,000 on Wednesday, with CoinGecko putting the price at about $77,328, up about 0.7 percent over 24 hours, and other venues quoting as high as $78,230 in the early European session. The move followed a sharp overnight swing: having touched about $77,970 late on Tuesday as US polls closed, Bitcoin fell to about $75,740 between 21:45 and 03:10 UTC as results pointed to a Democratic sweep, then recovered as the uncertainty lifted. Its market capitalisation is about $1.55 trillion on 24 hour volume of about $28.65 billion, and the price remains about 4.5 percent lower over seven days. Trader Michaël van de Poppe had flagged the potential for a sell the rumour, buy the news reaction around the vote, and analysts cited by CoinCentral see $79,000 to $82,000 as the next levels to watch if the rebound holds.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $115.56 million on Tuesday 3rd November, according to SoSoValue, a third consecutive session of withdrawals but about 71 percent smaller than Monday's $398.6 million. BlackRock's IBIT lost $94.98 million and Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust $52.60 million, while Bitwise's BITB took in $21.92 million, Fidelity's FBTC $6.76 million and Morgan Stanley's MSBT $3.34 million. Total net assets stand at $99.16 billion, about 6.33 percent of Bitcoin's market capitalisation, with cumulative net inflows of $56.47 billion. Bitwise head of research André Dragosch described the recent redemptions as a short-term risk-off reaction rather than a structural change in institutional sentiment, noting that retail investors hold most ETF assets and respond more sharply to price swings.

Immediate support lies at $76,000, then $75,600, near Wednesday's overnight low, and $75,000, while resistance sits at $78,500, then $80,000 and $82,000, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

 ETHEREUM (ETH) approx $2,290-$2,310

Ether is trading near $2,300 on Wednesday, up about 1.9 to 2.2 percent over 24 hours, with a market capitalisation of about $281.2 billion and 24 hour volume of about $10.3 billion, according to OKX data, outperforming Bitcoin as it recovered from Tuesday's $2,250 area. US spot Ether ETFs recorded net outflows of $85.35 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue, a seventh consecutive day of withdrawals though about 39 percent smaller than Monday's; BlackRock's ETHA lost $74.44 million and Grayscale's Ethereum Mini Trust $10.91 million, while the other nine funds recorded no net flows. Total net assets stand at $13.32 billion, about 4.76 percent of Ether's market capitalisation, against cumulative net inflows of $12.06 billion, with $352.9 million traded on the day.

On the development side, the Ethereum Foundation has published a post setting out wallet protocols intended to make privacy a default feature for ordinary users rather than a tool for specialists. On price, 24/7 Wall St. identifies a recovery above the 20-day moving average near $2,358 as the first sign of a turn, while a failure of recent support would put the 200-day average near $2,157 in view.

Immediate support lies at $2,250, then $2,230 and $2,157, the 200-day moving average, while resistance sits at $2,358, the 20-day moving average, then $2,385 and $2,450, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

🔷 XRP (XRP) approx $1.27-$1.29

XRP is trading near $1.28 on Wednesday, up about 2 to 3.5 percent over 24 hours and one of the stronger large tokens, with a market capitalisation of about $80.7 billion to $81.3 billion and 24 hour volume of about $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, within a daily range of about $1.25 to $1.29. US spot XRP ETFs recorded no net flows on Tuesday, but they were the only one of the four main spot crypto ETF categories to record net inflows in the latest weekly data, taking in $4.32 million while Bitcoin, Ether and Solana funds lost a combined $706 million. U.Today notes that XRP remains in a correction from its September highs near $1.65 and needs to hold above $1.35 to signal a genuine improvement.

Immediate support lies at $1.24 to $1.25, then $1.20 and $1.15, while resistance sits at $1.30 to $1.33, then $1.35, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

◎ SOLANA (SOL) approx $92-$94

Solana is trading near $93 on Wednesday, up about 1 to 1.5 percent over 24 hours, with a market capitalisation of about $54.9 billion and 24 hour volume of about $2.6 billion, but it remains down about 9 percent over seven days and almost 23 percent over 30 days, according to OKX data. US spot Solana ETFs recorded a marginal outflow of about $100,000 on Tuesday after a record single-session exit of about $71 million last week, and attention is turning to the Breakpoint conference, which opens in London on 15th November.

Immediate support lies at $91 to $92, then $90 and $87, while resistance sits at $95, then $97 and $100, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

₳ CARDANO (ADA) approx $0.188-$0.191

Cardano is trading around $0.19 on Wednesday, up about 1.8 to 2 percent over 24 hours but about 7.4 percent lower over seven days, with a market capitalisation of roughly $7.0 billion to $7.2 billion. U.Today notes that the token has slid from October highs around $0.28 and is trying to find a floor in the $0.185 to $0.190 zone, with the short-term outlook remaining bearish while the price stays below $0.215.

The $0.185 to $0.190 zone provides immediate support, with $0.18 beneath it, while resistance sits at $0.20, then $0.206 and $0.215, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

💕 DOGECOIN (DOGE) approx $0.074-$0.076

Dogecoin is trading around $0.075 on Wednesday, up about 1.2 to 1.7 percent over 24 hours, with a market capitalisation of about $11.7 billion to $11.8 billion, though it remains about 7 percent lower over seven days and about 22 percent lower over 30 days, as meme coins tracked the broader recovery without leading it.

The $0.0735 level provides immediate support, with $0.070 below it, while resistance sits at $0.0765, then $0.080 and $0.082, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

😱 Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Sentiment Recovers to 35 but Fear Persists

CoinGlass's Fear and Greed Index stood at 35 on Wednesday, up 8 points from 27 on Tuesday, with a seven day average of 35 and a 30 day average of 53, according to data cited by ChainCatcher, while another widely followed version of the index rose to 34 from 26. The rebound reflects relief that the election outcome is known and slower ETF outflows, but the reading remains far below the Greed level of about 70 recorded a month ago.

🏛 Traditional Markets Context

Treasuries sold off on Tuesday after the stronger than expected JOLTS report, with the ten year yield rising about 5 basis points to near 4.95 percent, the 30 year to about 5.32 percent and the two year to about 4.62 percent, before reversing on Wednesday as the Democratic sweep prompted a move into bonds and bets on slower government spending; the ten year fell nearly 5 basis points to 4.915 percent in Asian trading. The dollar index dropped 0.6 percent to a one-month low of 101.27, with the steepest falls against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc: the yen strengthened about 0.8 percent to 157.92 per dollar, the dollar slipped 0.6 percent to 0.8159 francs and the euro gained 0.6 percent to $1.1258, while sterling rose to its highest since mid-September. In Europe, Germany's ten year Bund yielded about 3.35 percent and France's ten year OAT about 4.93 percent early on Wednesday.

Across commodities, Brent is near $104.40 after Tuesday's settlement at its lowest since 7th October, gold has jumped back above $4,000, silver is up about 4 percent near $51.90, platinum is up close to 3 percent and copper is holding above $14,000 a tonne after touching a two-and-a-half month low. OCBC's Moh Siong Sim cautioned that legislation remains difficult to pass even after a Democratic sweep, given the president's veto, so attention now returns to data, with ADP payrolls and the Treasury's refunding announcement today, the Bank of England on Thursday and US payrolls on Friday.

🏢 INSTITUTIONAL & CORPORATE

AMD Guides to About $17 Billion as Data Centre Sales Nearly Double, Super Micro and Arista Beat on AI Demand and Oracle Rebounds After Pricing Its $20 Billion Raise

AMD reported third quarter revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45 percent and a record, above the roughly $13.1 billion expected and the top of its own range, with adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share against estimates of about $1.95. Data centre revenue rose 97 percent to about $8.5 billion, around $300 million ahead of forecasts and now almost two-thirds of sales, while client revenue rose 7 percent to $2.9 billion, short of expectations, and gaming fell 40 percent. The company guided fourth quarter revenue to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3 percent, against consensus of about $16.2 billion, and Chief Executive Lisa Su said she now expects 2027 revenue to grow by more than 80 percent, with demand still exceeding supply. Gross margin is expected to slip to about 55 percent from 56 percent as Helios rack systems that include purchased memory make up more of the mix. The shares closed 3.65 percent higher at $483.90 and rose between 5 and 7 percent after hours.

Super Micro Computer reported fiscal first quarter sales of $19.95 billion, up 298 percent, and adjusted earnings of $1.81 per share, against expectations of $17.35 billion and $1.23, guided second quarter sales to $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion and set a fiscal 2027 outlook of $72 billion to $82 billion, above the LSEG consensus of $69.17 billion, sending the shares up between 6 and 9 percent after hours. Arista Networks reported third quarter earnings of $1.20 per share on revenue of $3.66 billion, up 58 percent, and guided fourth quarter revenue to $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion against expectations of about $3.6 billion, lifting the stock by as much as 12 percent, while Block rose more than 6 percent after beating estimates with revenue of $6.72 billion and raising its full-year guidance. Oracle recovered 5.85 percent to $126.19 after pricing 86.2 million shares at $116, an 11.2 percent discount to Friday's close, alongside $10 billion of senior notes in five tranches maturing between 2029 and 2046 with coupons of 7 to 8.65 percent; Baird's Rob Oliver said the sale matched what the company had previewed, and Moody's affirmed its rating with a negative outlook.

⚖️ REGULATORY & POLICY

A Democratic Congress Resets Washington's Crypto Agenda, Wall Street Sues the CFTC Over Stock Perpetual Futures and Hong Kong Outlines a Wider Licensing Regime

In the United States, the midterm result changes the leadership of the committees that oversee digital assets. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a long-standing critic of the industry, is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee, Democrats will control the House Financial Services and Agriculture committees that handled the CLARITY Act, and Sherrod Brown won in Ohio despite about $63 million of crypto industry spending against him. The CLARITY Act, which failed a Senate procedural vote by 49 to 50 in September, must pass before the current Congress ends on 3rd January or be reintroduced, and a TD Cowen analyst expects no path to passage for two years under Democratic control, although industry figures still see room for bipartisan work on crypto taxation and expect the SEC, CFTC and Treasury to drive much of the near-term policy agenda.

Also in the United States, the CFTC announced on Tuesday that equity perpetual futures can begin trading on qualifying US exchanges, classifying the open-ended contracts as security futures under joint CFTC and SEC oversight. Within hours the Capital Markets Alliance, whose members include Cboe Global Markets, Citadel Securities and the Healthy Markets Association, sued in the Southern District of New York, arguing that the products are security-based swaps under the SEC's exclusive jurisdiction, alleging breaches of the Administrative Procedure Act, naming Coinbase, Kalshi and Bitnomial as defendants and seeking emergency relief to halt trading while the case proceeds. A CFTC spokesperson criticised the suit as interference with regulated markets, and the case follows CME Group's challenge in June to crypto perpetual contracts.

In Hong Kong, the Deputy Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury told the main forum of Hong Kong FinTech Week on Tuesday that the government will establish licensing regimes for virtual asset dealing, custody, advisory and management services, with an amending bill to be submitted to the Legislative Council within 2026. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui also said an interbank tokenised gold project, with each token representing a standard 400-ounce bar, will start soon on the Project Ensemble infrastructure, extending the city's activity-based framework beyond trading platforms and stablecoin issuers.

📦 COMMODITIES

🪙 Gold: Trading approx $4,000-$4,035/oz

Spot gold jumped more than 2 percent on Wednesday, rising as high as about $4,029 from a session low of $3,919.85, a rebound of close to $110, and traded near $4,020 to $4,032 in the European morning, with December US futures near $4,031 to $4,040. The move reversed Tuesday's fall of about 0.7 percent, when the stronger JOLTS report lifted yields, and was driven by the weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields after the Democratic sweep; Capital.com's Kyle Rodda said gridlock between the White House and Congress could slow US spending, while Pepperstone's Chris Weston pointed to demand for protection against a less predictable administration. The metal remains more than 7 percent lower this year, although figures cited by FX Leaders show central banks bought a net 321 tonnes in the third quarter and gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes.

🛢️ Brent Crude: approx $104-$105/bbl

Brent fell $1.17 to settle at $103.60 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest close since 7th October, and WTI lost 37 cents to $96.09 after dipping below $95, a second daily decline as rumours of progress towards a deal circulated and the market priced out the post-election escalation risk that had lifted crude by more than 10 percent in October. Prices firmed on Wednesday, with Brent up about 0.8 percent to near $104.40 and WTI near $96.60, after American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude stocks falling 5.27 million barrels in the week to 30th October against expectations of a build of about 880,000 barrels, with distillates down 1.19 million barrels and gasoline up 1.43 million; Haitong Futures described the figures as broadly supportive. Official EIA inventory data follow later today.

🟠 Copper: Trading approx $6.38-$6.42/lb ($14,070-$14,150/t)

Copper fell about 2 percent on Tuesday, with three-month LME copper down 2.1 percent at $14,034 a tonne late in the session after touching $13,883, its lowest since 19th August, as uncertainty over the midterms and an inflow of 17,325 tonnes into LME warehouses in the US weighed, lifting LME stocks to a four-month high of 309,650 tonnes. Tight physical supply in China limited the losses, with the Yangshan import premium near $200 a tonne, its highest in more than a decade, and COMEX copper edged about 0.4 percent higher to around $6.41 a pound on Wednesday.

⚪ Silver: approx $51.50-$52.00/oz

Silver slipped about 1.1 percent on Tuesday to near $50.49 an ounce before rebounding sharply on Wednesday, with futures up about 4.2 percent at $51.85 as the dollar weakened after the election results. The metal remains down almost 28 percent this year and about 15 percent over the past month, following a 14 percent fall in October.

🪙 Platinum: Trading approx $1,450-$1,460/oz

Platinum fell about 1.7 percent on Tuesday to around $1,430 an ounce before jumping close to 3 percent on Wednesday to about $1,456 to $1,458, while palladium rose about 3.8 percent to near $969 as precious metals rallied across the board on the weaker dollar.

📝 MARKET NARRATIVE & ANALYSIS

Wednesday 4th November 2026 tests whether crypto can separate politics from macro. The Democratic sweep removes the prospect of a supportive Republican Congress, puts the CLARITY Act on course to expire and brings a sceptical chair to the Senate Banking Committee, yet Bitcoin's overnight drop to about $75,740 was bought within hours and the price is back above $77,000. That resilience matters because positioning was already defensive: the Fear and Greed Index stood at 27 on Tuesday, liquidations flushed leverage and ETF outflows slowed sharply to $115.6 million from almost $400 million a day earlier. The near-term direction is likely to be set less by Washington than by flows and rates, so a return to ETF inflows and a softer jobs report on Friday would give a move towards $80,000 more substance, while renewed redemptions would leave the $75,000 to $76,000 floor exposed.

In equities, the market is weighing strong AI fundamentals against a new political risk. AMD, Super Micro and Arista all guided well above expectations, confirming that demand for AI infrastructure still exceeds supply, and Oracle's ability to price $20 billion of stock and bonds settled its immediate funding question. Overnight, however, investors in Tokyo and Seoul sold the same theme on concern that a Democratic Congress will scrutinise data-centre construction, power costs and spending more closely, which shows how much of this year's equity performance rests on a single investment cycle. Europe's reaction, with banks and renewable energy companies rising and defence stocks falling, points to a broader rotation that could gather pace if US policy shifts towards clean energy and away from military spending.

For monetary policy and geopolitics, the signals are mixed. Gridlock in Washington implies slower fiscal expansion, which helps explain the rally in Treasuries and the dollar's fall to a one-month low, but the JOLTS report showed labour demand strengthening and the market still prices a high probability of a December Fed hike. In Europe, today's flash estimate is expected to show euro area inflation near 4 percent, and the Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate on Thursday for the first time since 2023. On Iran, President Trump's statement that there are no immediate plans for strikes lowers the near-term risk premium, yet Tehran's insistence that the two sides remain far apart means the calm in oil depends on talks that have yet to produce a framework.

💸 STABLECOINS, TOKENISATION & REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS

Stablecoins: Tether Chief Executive Paolo Ardoino told the Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano that the company holds about 150,000 bitcoin, worth some $11.5 billion, roughly 50,000 more than the holdings implied by its latest reserve attestation, which values the bitcoin in USDT reserves at $8.37 billion; he did not say where the additional coins are held or when they were acquired. Supply data continue to point to contraction, with CryptoQuant analysis showing total stablecoin market capitalisation falling by $6.9 billion over the past month, a decline that has coincided with Bitcoin's weaker trend. Circle reports its third quarter results today, and in Switzerland a franc-denominated stablecoin, Safirum's CHF-S, has gone live on Solana.

Tokenisation: Morgan Stanley said it has become one of the first banks to tokenise US equities and Treasuries through the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation's tokenisation service, which launched on 28th October with 20 participating financial institutions, and its head of digital assets strategy, Amy Oldenburg, said the bank would use the experience to build out its digital asset operations. StoneX analysts argue that DTCC's launch could accelerate adoption and benefit platforms such as Securitize that already hold the full regulatory stack of transfer agent, broker-dealer and alternative trading system, pointing to the potential for tokenised Treasuries to circulate as collateral around the clock, while tokenised private credit on Solana has reached $1.44 billion, according to The Block.

Regulatory frameworks: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has set out, in its final rule implementing the GENIUS Act, how community banks can issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries, while keeping a $5 million capital floor in place beyond an issuer's first three years. The agency found that none of the current bank and non-bank issuers in its analysis qualified as small entities, with issuers generally above $1 billion in issuance, and counted about 602 small institutions among the 986 it supervises, which indicates the size of the potential pool of new bank issuers. With Congress now less likely to legislate on market structure, rulemaking of this kind by the banking and markets regulators is set to shape the US framework over the next two years.

🤖 TECHNOLOGY, AI & INNOVATION

Samsung Books AMD and Nvidia for a Second Texas Fab, Nvidia Tells Cloud Partners to Cap China Business and OpenAI Launches a Grid Protectors Programme

Technology: Samsung Electronics will use its second plant in Taylor, Texas, to make base dies for the high-bandwidth memory used in AMD and Nvidia AI accelerators, according to South Korea's Maeil Business Newspaper, which reported that the 2.7 million square foot facility, about 1.5 times the size of the first Taylor plant and using 2-nanometre technology, has already secured orders for its entire planned output, with AMD taking most of it. Formal construction is due to begin this month, with equipment installation from February 2029 and mass production expected in 2030, and the plan follows Samsung's decision to raise capital spending by more than 60 percent this year to 84.4 trillion won, about $63 billion. None of the three companies has confirmed the orders.

AI: Nvidia has told its data centre and cloud computing partners that at least 51 percent of their services must be sold to companies outside China, the Financial Times reported, citing five people familiar with the matter, a requirement communicated through sales and regional teams that applies to future contracts rather than existing agreements. The move would narrow a route through which Chinese developers rent overseas computing capacity to reach advanced US chips that cannot be exported directly, and Nvidia, which neither confirmed nor denied the report, said in a statement that clouds built on American chips are the foundation that US model and application makers need to compete worldwide.

Innovation: OpenAI has launched a Grid Protectors Program under which future US AI campuses it develops directly will cut electricity use when extreme weather or other emergencies strain the grid, using batteries, on-site generation and power controls, and will pay the infrastructure costs needed to serve them rather than passing them to existing customers. Its planned campus in Effingham County, Georgia, is expected to require about 3,200 megawatts under a 25-year electricity agreement and will offer up to 1,000 megawatts of flexible demand response, and the company is reported to be preparing a post-election campaign that refers to such facilities as compute campuses, a sign of how central local power costs have become to the politics of the AI build-out.

🌍 GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY & MACROECONOMICS

In the United States, JOLTS job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.523 million in September, the highest since May and above every estimate in Bloomberg's survey, against a consensus of about 7.1 million, with August revised up to 7.19 million; quits rose by 321,000 to 3.4 million, the most since May 2023, and the openings rate rose to 4.5 percent, leaving 1.06 vacancies per unemployed worker. Factory orders also beat forecasts, and Treasury yields rose across the curve in response. ADP payrolls and the quarterly refunding announcement follow today and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with markets still pricing a probability of about 74 to 75 percent that the Fed raises rates in December.

In Europe, Eurostat publishes its flash estimate of October inflation this morning, with economists expecting euro area inflation to rise to about 4 percent from 3.8 percent in September, already the highest since 2023, and core inflation to hold near 2.5 percent, after national data showed Italy rising to 5.4 percent and France to 3.4 percent, Spain holding at 4.9 percent and Germany easing to 2.8 percent on a temporary fuel tax cut; the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.5 percent last week, and Oxford Economics expects two further rises. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England announces its decision at noon on Thursday alongside the Monetary Policy Report, with 54 of 63 economists in a Reuters poll expecting a quarter-point rise to 4 percent, the first since August 2023, after September inflation reached 3.5 percent and three MPC members voted to tighten in September; markets price a further three to four rises during 2027.

In Asia Pacific, China's RatingDog general services PMI fell to 50.8 in October from 51.6, below expectations of about 51.5 and the weakest since July, as competition forced firms to cut selling prices for a second month even though input costs rose at the fastest pace in five months on fuel, materials and wages; the composite index eased to 52.0 from 52.4 and business confidence fell to a three-month low. In Australia, services and composite PMIs fell below 50, a day after the Reserve Bank's rate rise, while in Japan the yen recovered from a three-week low as the dollar weakened, with the risk of official intervention remaining in focus.

🔴 ELEVATED RISKS: Technology, Geopolitical & Macro

- Technology: AI Regulation and the Data-Centre Build-Out. Asian chip stocks swung by as much as 4 percent and SoftBank fell up to 8 percent on fears that a Democratic Congress will scrutinise data-centre construction, power costs and AI spending, and any federal or state action against new capacity could undermine the growth that AMD, Super Micro and Arista have just forecast.

- Technology: Persistent Crypto Fund Outflows and Security Incidents. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost about $1.16 billion in three sessions and Ether ETFs have recorded seven straight days of outflows, while a run of thefts affecting exchanges and institutional accounts keeps operational risk in focus and leaves Bitcoin reliant on retail and derivatives demand near $77,000.

- Geopolitical: Iran Diplomacy Still Far From a Deal. President Trump's statement that there are no immediate plans for strikes contrasts with Iranian officials' insistence that the two sides remain far apart and that Iran is still in a state of war, so a breakdown in the Qatar-mediated process could quickly reverse Brent's fall to a four-week low.

- Geopolitical: Divided Government and Fiscal Brinkmanship. A Democratic Congress facing a president who has promised to use his veto raises the risk of drawn-out bargaining over spending, the debt ceiling and appointments, with Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi still to be settled and scope for further volatility in Treasuries and the dollar.

- Macro: Tightening Pressure Across Major Economies. JOLTS openings at a four-month high keep the odds of a December Fed hike near three in four, the Bank of England is expected to raise rates on Thursday and euro area inflation is forecast near 4 percent, so a strong payrolls report on Friday would challenge the bond rally that followed the election.

- Macro: Volatility in Asian Markets and Currencies. The Nikkei's intraday fall of more than 4 percent, the KOSPI's reversal from a 3 percent gain to a 4 percent loss and the yen's rapid appreciation, with intervention risk in view, show how quickly global capital is repositioning around the AI trade and the dollar.

🟢 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS: Institutional & Regulatory

- Institutional: AI Infrastructure Demand Confirmed. AMD's guidance of about $17 billion for the fourth quarter, Super Micro's fiscal 2027 outlook of up to $82 billion and Arista's above-consensus forecast show that orders for AI computing and networking still exceed supply, supporting the earnings base beneath the semiconductor sector.

- Institutional: Binance Flows Stabilise. Binance's report that hourly deposits have exceeded withdrawals since early Tuesday, after net outflows of about $5.3 billion following the reopening of withdrawals, suggests the largest exchange is working through the record theft without a wider loss of confidence.

- Institutional: Easier Financial Conditions. The fall in Treasury yields and the dollar's drop to a one-month low after the election, together with a rally of more than 2 percent in gold and firmer European equities led by banks, ease financial conditions for global borrowers and support non-dollar assets.

- Regulatory: A Clearer Route for Bank Stablecoins. The OCC's final GENIUS Act rule sets out how community banks can issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries, opening a regulated path for hundreds of smaller institutions to take part in on-chain dollar payments.

- Regulatory: Tokenised Securities Move Into Production. Morgan Stanley's tokenisation of US equities and Treasuries through DTCC's new service shows that core US market infrastructure is now supporting live tokenised activity at large banks, a step towards round-the-clock collateral mobility.

- Regulatory: Hong Kong Broadens Its Virtual Asset Regime. Plans to license virtual asset dealing, custody, advisory and management, with legislation due within 2026, and an interbank tokenised gold project on Project Ensemble give institutions a wider and clearer regulated perimeter in a major Asian financial centre.

📋 Other Stories

ZachXBT Names Crédit Mutuel Arkéa as the Alleged Victim of a $133 Million Theft

On-chain investigator ZachXBT has identified French cooperative bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa as the suspected victim of a theft now estimated at more than $133 million, after tracing a further $27 million of withdrawals from centralised exchange accounts on top of the $106 million he first flagged on 2nd November, and said delayed disclosure allowed more than $30 million to be laundered; the bank has not confirmed the incident.

Novo Nordisk Raises Its 2026 Outlook for a Third Time as Wegovy Pill Sales Beat Forecasts

Novo Nordisk reported third quarter adjusted operating profit of 31.72 billion Danish crowns, up 27 percent at constant exchange rates and above the 28.39 billion expected, as sales of its Wegovy pill rose 53 percent from the second quarter to 5.39 billion crowns, and now expects 2026 adjusted sales and operating profit to range from a 2 percent decline to 2 percent growth, sending its shares up as much as 6.6 percent.

UK Cyber Agency Warns That AI-Powered Ransomware Is Highly Likely to Hit Critical Infrastructure by 2028

The National Cyber Security Centre's annual review, published on Tuesday, judges it highly likely that AI-powered malware will feature in a ransomware attack on UK critical national infrastructure by 2028, with Chief Executive Richard Horne arguing that AI is exposing long-tolerated weaknesses rather than inventing new methods of attack, as the government commits £60 million to a national Cyber Shield and £70 million to a new vulnerability research centre.

BitMart Confirms a Further Hack as Investigators Link It to the Mercado Bitcoin Attack

BitMart founder Sheldon Xia confirmed that the exchange, which halted trading in August and is restructuring, lost about $391,000 from wallets on Base, Arbitrum and Optimism on 2nd November, with on-chain analysis suggesting the same attackers struck Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin about 53 minutes later in a breach that Mercado Bitcoin estimates at about $38 million, of which about $11 million has been frozen.

📅 Looking Ahead: November 2026 to February 2027

4th November: Euro area flash inflation estimate for October; US ADP payrolls; US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; EIA weekly petroleum inventories; Qualcomm, Arm, Uber and Circle report; the XRP Ledger's fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is scheduled to activate.

5th November: The Bank of England announces its Monetary Policy Committee decision and Monetary Policy Report at noon, with a rise in Bank Rate to 4 percent expected, followed by Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference at 12:30 GMT.

6th November: US October nonfarm payrolls; Brazil's cut-off for supervised banks serving unauthorised crypto providers.

12th November: The EBA begins direct supervision of USDC under MiCA. 15th November: China's higher foreign exchange reserve requirement of 6 percent takes effect; Solana's Breakpoint conference opens in London.

Mid-November: Anthropic's targeted Nasdaq listing. 17th November: Nvidia reports quarterly results. 18th November: Deadline for responses to the FCA's DeFi guidance consultation GC26/7 and cryptoasset perimeter consultation CP26/36. 19th November: Deadline for comments on the FASB stablecoin accounting proposal.

25th November: Second estimate of US third quarter GDP. 29th November: Full OPEC+ ministerial meeting to decide 2027 production quotas.

1st December: US JOLTS job openings for October. 8th December: Reserve Bank of Australia decision. 9th December: FOMC decision. 14th December: Comment deadline for the CFTC's crypto asset market proposal.

15th December: CFTC public roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading and tokenisation. 17th December: Bank of England decision. 3rd January 2027: The current Congress ends, and the CLARITY Act must be reintroduced if it has not been enacted.

7th February 2027: Christine Lagarde steps down as ECB President. 12th February 2027: The Bank of England's consultation on tokenised collateral in central clearing closes. 28th February 2027: The FCA's crypto authorisation application window closes.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This briefing is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The Digital Commonwealth Limited does not recommend that any cryptocurrency or digital asset be bought, sold, or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this briefing has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. DCW makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness. All views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Digital Commonwealth Limited or its affiliates.

EAJW (c) 2026 The Digital Commonwealth Limited. All rights reserved.

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